While the Ukrainian blitzkrieg in the north gets most of the attention, the forces in the south are using a different approach: a tenacious attrition of Russian soldiers.
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On August 31, the Ukrainian authorities confirmed this launched an offensive in the southern Kherson regionand all eyes were directed there.
But the focus soon changed as news began to arrive that something was happening in the Kharkiv region in the north-east of the country.
Now we know what.
In the past week, the Ukrainian forces are fast recaptured several important cities in the Kharkiv region – duly documented on social media:
But the offensive is also taking place in the Kherson region. Quite the opposite:
Slowly but steadily, Ukrainian forces advance with minor attacks.
– I am impressed that Ukraine tactically masters two extremes of modern warfare, says Palle Ydstebø at War College.
Ukraine must regularly attack strategically important bridges physically cut off the 15-30,000 Russian soldiers located on the north side of the Dnipro River. This is how Ukraine prevents the arrival of reinforcements and supplies.
They continually attack command posts, artillery and ammunition depots.
– It’s a difficult operation. A slow choking from cold, explains Ydstebø.
– In Kherson, the Ukrainians will use time as a weapon. They hold the Russian soldiers in check and wear them out. Chew regularly inward towards the city of Kherson along four axes.
Ukraine: the Russians will surrender
Also the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes that Ukraine constantly weakening morale and fighting ability of Russian forces.
Of he also writes in his September 13 update than the southern command of Ukraine September 12 declared that Russian forces located along the northern bank of the Dnipro River are attempting to negotiate a surrender.
– I’ve seen messages about this. Some of the analysts I follow are quite skeptical, says Ydstebø.
Point out that if there is something in it, one wonders how many departments are negotiating to surrender.
– This is also a psychological war: Ukraine is trying to convince other Russian soldiers to do the same. In war it worked before.
Is Kherson waiting for a city war?
ISW shows in his report satellite images of Kyselivka, 15 kilometers northwest of the city of Kherson, which will show that only four Russian military vehicles remain in the strategically important city.
“This is consistent with rumors that the Donetsk People’s Republic has left Kyselivka and returned to the Dnipro River,” writes ISW.
According to the think tank, this possible withdrawal could weaken Russia’s ability to defend the northwestern city of Kherson.
So: Could there be a war in the streets of the city of Kherson, the only Ukrainian regional capital that Russian forces have managed to capture?
Ydstebø believes Ukraine will avoid him for a long time. They will not burn the city to the ground and they will not harm civilians.
– I think they will rather exhaust them. Ukraine has the initiative and can use the time it wants, but in the worst case it risks having to attack the city of Kherson. Some have arrived messages encouraging citizens to apply for coverage.
The symbol of the Crimean peninsula
Ydstebø explains that the city of Kherson is important for Russia because it is a hub for further operations and is essential to be able to defend access to the Crimean peninsula.
Ydstebø defines the Russian narrative on Crimea as “bordering on mythology”. Putin’s popularity has soared in Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014.
– Is Crimea a symbol?
– Yes. For the Russian view of Ukraine as “little Russians”. And Ukraine knows this very well.
A loss of him would be such a great defeat of political prestige that it could shake the legitimacy of Putin and the entire regime.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyj, said the following on Sunday evening:
– Our goal is to remove the occupation of our whole country. We cannot allow Russia to continue the occupation which began in 2014.
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