Slotcall: Sell-off! | IEX.nl

A day like today makes it painfully clear that investing involves risks. The AEX only fell further during the day and eventually closed 2.0% in the red.

It is the cyclical stocks that take the biggest blows. Those who are overweight in chippers, financials and steel companies should not log into their Degiro account. Various media report that fears have arisen in the market about the recovery of the global economy. Among other things, a disappointing figure on American jobless claims is cited.

It is true that in the US more people applied for unemployment benefits than expected. However, this cannot be the reason for the decline. The figure came out at 2:30 PM and if we look at the AEX chart, we don’t see a spike down at that time. Sometimes it’s just one of those days when everything is seized to hit the sell button.

ECB goes green

The ECB also announced a new strategy update. As far as I’m concerned, there aren’t many surprises in that, for example, the central bank will use a flexible inflation target of 2%. Simply put, it is not a problem if the general price level rises above 2% in the short term.

Policymakers attach great importance to achieving this objective in the medium term. This is reasonably in line with the policy of the US central bank.

What also struck us is that climate is now a mandate from the ECB. Well, I’m not going to say anything about this except that it now seems very likely that Christine Lagarde has been a political appointment. Arend Jan has just read the entire Maastricht treaty today and the word climate does not seem to have appeared in it once.

Shortest summary #ECB strategy change:
– Flexible inflation target 2%
– Houses go along with the inflation rate (is that 2% immediately in the bag, you think cynically)
– ECB appropriates climate as a mandate, the Maastricht Treaty says nothing about this #AEX pic.twitter.com/YadV7ZDJhp

— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) July 8, 2021

Just Eat Takeaway

Just Eat Takeaway (-1.3%) was one of the climbers this morning, but eventually has to give up. However, there is certainly good news to report. Deliveroo has outperformed expectations in the second quarter and has increased estimates for the full year.

The meal delivery company expects the GTV (gross transaction value of the orders) to grow by 50 to 60% this year compared to a year ago. Previously, the company had expected a plus of about 30 to 40%.

It is a clear signal that the meal delivery industry is growing steadily. You can read in the article below whether you should have the Just Eat Takeaway shares as a result of this news.

Just Eat Takeaway rides on the expectation of Deliveroo #JUSTEATTAKEAWAY https://t.co/IYiZtcDl8p

— IEX Investor Desk (@Investor Desk) July 8, 2021

Broad market

• The AEX falls 2.0% and we are performing reasonably in line with the DAX (-1.7%) and CAC (-2.0%).
• The CBOE VIX Index (Volatility) is up 15.4%. The index is now trading at 18.7 points.
• Wall Street is making up for some of its opening loss: S&P 500 (-0.0%), Dow Jones (-0.8%) and Nasdaq (-0.9%).
• The euro is up 0.4% and is trading at 1.184 against the US dollar.
• Gold (-0.4%) and silver (-0.9%) are also not having it today.
• Oil: WTI (+1.0%) and Brent (+0.9%) are a white raven today.
• Bitcoin (-4.0%) shows a spring. The Chinese are at it again.

Annuities

Interest rates just keep falling. The Dutch fee on ten-year government paper falls three basis points to -0.21%.

The Damrak:

• Philips (-3.1%) gets a kick from Deutsche Bank. The investment bank is removing the share from the buying list after two lawsuits have been filed in the US against the medical device manufacturer in the past two days. The plaintiffs believe that Philips would have caused lung cancer. It is no open secret that fines in the US can be quite high.
• Stocks with a Chinese twist are taking a beating again. Prosus (-4.1%) is even the largest decliner within the AEX.
• Royal Dutch Shell (+0.2%) is the only share that manages to keep its head above water. The oil group is benefiting from price target increases by Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse.
• The latter does not apply to ArcelorMittal (-3.1%). Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Cazenove have timed their target increase a little badly.
• Chippers almost always do poorly on a day like today. The biggest bleeder is ASMI with a loss of 3.8%.
• Flow Traders (+1.6%) must have these kinds of days. The more volatility and trading the better.
• The number of corona infections in the Netherlands is increasing at a rapid pace. The same applies to the chance of new lockdowns. maybe that Basic-Fit (-2.4%) has therefore been in such bad shape in recent weeks.
• In Accsys (-4.4%) seems to have taken some profit. It has also been very hard lately. The trading volume of 531,000 pieces is also well above average.

Advice

• ABN Amro: to €11.40 from €11.30 and keep – JPMorgan Cazenove
• Ahold: to €28.90 from €25.20 and buy – Sanford & Bernstein
• Adyen: to €2,560 and buy – Jefferies
• Aperam: to €51.50 from €38.40 and keep – JPMorgan Cazenove
• Aperam: to €57 from €55 and buy – Kepler Cheuvreux
• ArcelorMittal: to €35.90 from €34.20 and buy – Morgan Stanley
• ArcelorMittal: to €40 from €29.50 and buy – JPMorgan Cazenove
• DSM: to €145 and keep – Morgan Stanley
• IMCD: to €130 from €102 and keep – JPMorgan Cazenove
• ING: to €12.40 from €12 and buy – JPMorgan Cazenove
• Philips: to love to buy and to €44 from €52 – Deutsche Bank
• Royal Dutch Shell: to 2,220p from 2100p and buy Goldman Sachs
• Royal Dutch Shell: to 1.915p from 1.60p and outperform – Credit Suisse
• Unilever: to 4,200p from 3,600p and sell – Morgan Stanley

Agenda

9 july 2021

1. 00:00Prosus Bava
2. 03:30China inflation CPI jun+1,6% YoYicon warning
3. 03:30China inflation PPI Jun+8,5% YoY
4. 08:00VK manufacturing PMI mei

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