The story of the day is, of course, this, Netflix’s deception. There is now -35.9% on subscribershrink.
Buying moment? Maybe, but there might be more going on here than a price dip. Like those other fallen Big Tech star Meta, Netflix may be reaching the limits of its growth. Especially with the increasing competition. At such a zeperd there are usually more trains, but who knows.
In any case, it is now almost 70% off the price since the top last year. That’s hundreds of billions less in the postage of the shareholders. Yes, this is the risk of growth stocks…
Bill Ackman pic.twitter.com/UXSFwBKQ27
– Erik Mauritz (@erikmauritz) April 20, 2022
Bill Ackmann’s Pershing Square is doing -1.6% on Damrak, to finish the story. Is not too bad? And where there is risk, there is also an opportunity? Go and see what Paul Weeteling makes of it.
The advice you knew about?#Netflixhttps://t.co/XiGvparNVi
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) April 20, 2022
Where one Big Tech fund can pack its bags, the next is already ready. One more time about that infamous valuation: a lot for a car manufacturer, but does that also apply to an innovative car manufacturer with a genius as CEO?
at 10 p.m. #Tesla Q1 numbers. Consensus:
Q1
Earnings per share $2.36
Revenue $17.8bln
Q2
EPS (stands for earnings per share, not wappie) $2.34
Revenue $19.14bln
2022
Wpa $10,53
Revenue $83.82blnLook good lines rise nicely, seems almost normal proportion. Until you see that appreciation#AEX pic.twitter.com/mEwgDjiODm
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) April 20, 2022
Lots of figures and movement on the Damrak, and so on, but first the broad market. With talking heads today. The IMF also believes it should be involved in fairground divination. Predicting prices, as a self-respecting organization you don’t concern yourself with that. Will do something again insecure times to be.
IMF warns of further market sell-offs as central banks adjust policy https://t.co/VUOdiztqCL
— CNBC (@CNBC) April 20, 2022
Meanwhile in Frankfurt, where perhaps something is moving:
Not most prominent #ECB member, but euro seems to be rising against dollar https://t.co/KMf3I7lwwJ pic.twitter.com/iP5wICjap4
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) April 20, 2022
Perhaps this has something to do with today’s German PPI figure for March: over +30%! Once again, the official and only legal ECB mandate is a 2% inflation target. You waste your own words on it.
What does all this mean for the broad market? First the AEX which sees 730 again. Next stop up is that 743.05 from two weeks ago. Down it says 652.80 from early March. That sounds very far away, just like all time high 829.66 from last November. Yes, we may have been in bear market for five months.
Further:
- Most stock exchanges even do it with a one before the decimal point, excellent European indices today
- Wall Street is very volatile: the blue chips are doing well, but tech is getting hit again. Netflix is really cutting it. ASML is also in the Nasdaq 100, climbs the day and takes all chippers in tow
- The volatility then, the CBOE VIX Index is up and the VD DAX New is up
- Partly because of that ECB pipo, the dollar gets a 0.7% kick and is about a cent higher at 1.086
- Oil suddenly drops, gold does nothing and crypto doesn’t break pots today either
Finally, on the turbulent waves of the interest rate market, what is happening here this year:
Beursplein 5
Many figures today on the Damrak, including popular names. The Q2 outlook is on the thin side with ASML’s Q1s, but the company is looking ahead to 2025. Then sales will increase by another 35%? Perhaps this is the fantasy that gives the price a whirl today.
ASML to increase outlook 2025 #ASML https://t.co/3BG29Oao4h
– IEX Investor Desk (@Investor Desk) April 20, 2022
It was ten not-so-great months in the US for Just Eat Takeaway with GrubHub. Concern-wide, the growth has stopped, action is required and the company realizes that? The price is called a sigh of relief, but not after there was a new low with € 24.88 shortly after opening.
Just Eat Takeaway zet Grubhub in de etalage #JUSTEATTAKEAWAY https://t.co/h64lEPu6up
– IEX Investor Desk (@Investor Desk) April 20, 2022
CM.com is showing good sales growth, but not very good profit development. The course flies over the board and doesn’t seem to know how to handle it. The price shows it reversed from JETje, there was still more than +8.0% this morning
https://t.co/g5xQzPplPW: Strong growth but weak profitability #CM.COM https://t.co/FAZCmmOOrK
– IEX Investor Desk (@Investor Desk) April 20, 2022
Nobody talks about the €400 million depreciation of Heineken, because the company knows how to pass on the higher raw material prices and no less beer is drunk because of it. Thus our desk with a small addition from the undersigned.
What’s in the intro.
According to a company and board advisor I spoke to last week, the whole of corporate NL is surprised that no one complains about higher prices (?!), pays them and that there is no drop in demand.
Likewise with #Heineken? #AEX #inflation https://t.co/LXbOizhmip— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) April 20, 2022
Finally, about the offending and today tormented Vopak:
Vopak: a matter of patience #Vopak https://t.co/AKPoE7Lt08
– IEX Investor Desk (@Investor Desk) April 20, 2022
Then there are recommendations with target price reductions for ArcelorMittal, DSM and Vopak and increases for Heineken and AMG:
Anything else? Secure. Our chippers excel thanks to ASML, because the sector index SOX also goes well with +1.0% against the Nasdaq 100. Furthermore, roughly tech, financials and cyclical good are at the expense of value and real estate. Vastned is ex-dividend and the rest seems to be.
- Was already expected and priced in? DSM doesn’t do much on that one sell van Protective Materials
- AkzoNobel will have figures tomorrow: can it pass on prices like Heineken?
- Unilever is also such a price that is usual suspect and is currently driving along on good P&G figures (+2.5%)
- ABN Amro stands at -4.3% this year versus ING -20.5%
- After a few difficult days, Alfen is looking forward to it again
- You can also use your eyes, just draw a horizontal line over the tops of Basic-Fit
- Big job again, Boskalis is even more than HAL’s offer of €32.50
- PostNL shows signs of life again. Tomorrow €0.32 ex-dividend
- Van Lanschot Kempen, where does it come from? There is no news
- Sligro, TomTom and BAM also look nice, but on balance those prices don’t do much
- Ebusco is nice
- Don’t panic, ForFamers and Vastned are falling for the right reason: ex-dividend
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