Many of us went to bed last night worrying about what we would hear when we woke up in the morning, writes Sky News international affairs analyst Dominic Waghorn.
Iran has attacked Israel, the country it calls “Little Satan” and wants to wipe it off the map, sending hundreds of drones and missiles.
The attack was neutralized. Almost all missiles and drones were intercepted and did not reach their target.
Fears of a bigger war
But make no mistake, this remains a deeply troubling moment. There remains a very real risk that this all escalates into a much larger war.
First, Iran may be planning more attacks, regardless of what it says it considers the “over” case that began with Israel’s attack on its consulate in Damascus.
It could launch more missiles or use its allies in the region to attack Israel instead. The first attack was by Iran. But he may reasonably prefer that there be no possible sequel.
Concern about Israel’s attitude
But the biggest concern for now is what Israel will do next. Israelis like the question “what would you do?” What would Britain do if it was the recipient of an attack like the one Israel received last night?
The Israelis are fully aware of the threat posed by Iran. For years, Iran has partnered in the region with any group that opposes Israel’s very existence, arming, training and funding everything from Hezbollah and Hamas to the Houthis, for example.
Israel’s allies, the sky news analyst estimates, will urge the Netanyahu government to show restraint and stand for victory over Iran, as US President Joe Biden reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call he made , yesterday, during the night.
The British and other European allies will take the same stance and of course they will do the same with Iran. they will urge it not to further escalate the already tense situation in the Middle East.
He will let Israel’s greatest enemy go unpunished
After Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate, Western diplomats asked Israel not to overreact to a possible Iranian strike and that they would have their cover and help as long as they did not push the situation to extremes.
Now, they continue in the same line, calling for restraint from Israel and suggesting that it reprimand Iran only through the diplomatic channel.
But is this enough for Israel? Is he in a position, can he afford, to let this unprecedented attack by his greatest enemy go unpunished? the author wonders and estimates that no.
What Israel’s history shows
If Israel’s history speaks, then no. Israel cannot rely on others for its security. It has the military capability to hit Iran on its own. Iranian air defenses cannot deal with Israeli jets. This is the moment many in the Israeli military have been training for.
Iran has already said that if Israel retaliates, it will launch an even bigger attack than yesterday.
But regardless of diplomatic pressure from allies to show restraint, Israel will be reluctant to let Iran have the last word, the analyst concludes.
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