Almost a week has passed since Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, the fighting has been in full swing, but how far into Ukraine are the Russians really? And what areas have they taken control of?
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Rocket attacks and bombings are reported daily in Ukraine, primarily in the big cities. Russia started the invasion by attacking Ukraine from the sea, from land and from the air.
But how far has Russia really come?
– They are far from a military solution, says lieutenant colonel and head teacher at the Norwegian Defense College Geir Hågen Karlsen.
In recent days, fighting has intensified around major cities in Ukraine, but both the capital Kyiv and the country’s second largest city Kharkiv are still under Ukrainian rule.
Russia claims to have taken control of the city of Kherson on Wednesday morning, writes Reuters. The city’s mayor, Igor Nikolayev, for his part, denied that the city was in Russian hands.
– We are still Ukraine. We stand firm, Nikolayev wrote in a Facebook post.
Most of the Russian forces are in eastern Ukraine.
– All the way northwest of Kyiv there are some forces, and also in the area near Kherson. Apart from that, the entire western part of Ukraine is untouched except for planes and missile attacks, says Karlsen.
A much talked about Russian columnwhich is to be 64 kilometers long and contain tanks, tanks, artillery and support vehicles, is said to have stopped near Kyiv for several reasons.
– They have got stuck, and have been stopped by Ukrainians. There are few roads and a rather marshy area, it looks like they have got stuck in a traffic jam. It is a blissful chaos, says Karlsen.
He believes Russia has not had enough forces to attack everywhere.
– What can be a concern is if they attack from Belarus. They have attacked from Belarus north of Kyiv, but if they attack from Belarus further west, it is a different challenge for the Ukrainians.
– The resistance is not over
The Russian forces have taken control of some small towns and villages between Khersov and Mariupol, and an area northeast of Kyiv, says Hågen Karlsen.
– But the resistance is not over, even though they basically have control. We see that the Russian forces are not so motivated to fight. There are tanks that are left along the road.
–Tormod Heier is a professor at the Norwegian Defense College. It is a conscious strategy that Russia concentrates on the big cities, he says.
– The reason for this is because the political and military management in Ukraine comes from these big cities, says the lieutenant colonel who is the research leader at the staff school.
When Ukraine has control over its big cities, they are able to get more combat power out of their forces, than if the cities were isolated and communication was broken, Heier explains.
– So that’s what the Russians are trying to do. To piece up the Ukrainian resilience, so that the country will be easier to take bit by bit.
–Concerned about the use of heavy weapons
So far, it may look like Russia has failed. Several days of war have passed without Russia being able to take complete control of several important cities in Ukraine.
Heier believes Russia’s plan was to quickly take control of the state apparatus in Ukraine, but that it did not go according to plan.
– So with that, they have started a more exhausting war, where you gradually take strangleholds around the big cities.
This form of war can involve major material and human suffering.
–– It is a form of warfare that is much more brutal. It probably also means that this Russian superiority will not necessarily be so great.
When Russia has failed to control the big cities, what can we expect then?
– When they have not managed it, the war turns into another track and that track often favors the defender, namely Ukraine.
Karlsen is worried that Russia will use heavy weapons to gain control of Kyiv.
– Either they surround the city, or they give the Ukrainians an ultimatum. We are worried that they will use heavy artillery and fly into the city, with the consequences it will have for the civilian population.
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