The covid risk map in Spain is beginning to be colored red. Six autonomous communities are already at a high level of alert, according to the new Health traffic light, which takes into account nine parameters that measure both the speed of spread of the virus and the capacity of hospitals. They are Catalonia, Aragon, the Basque Country, La Rioja, Navarra and Castilla y León, which have a population of 14.5 million.
The incidence of this sixth wave is very unevenly distributed throughout the territory. Navarra (1,037 cases detected per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days) and the Basque Country (787) are by far the most affected, with up to three times as many diagnoses per capita than the average (323) and up to seven times more than the autonomous regions. affected: Andalusia (150), Castilla-La Mancha (152) and Extremadura (169), according to data published in the latest daily report of the Ministry of Health, on Friday.
As the epidemiologist Javier del Águila explains, who has studied the geographic spread of the virus during the pandemic, it is a pattern that has been repeating itself in several waves: the curve rises sharply first in the northwest, from there it advances to Madrid and then disperses through other communities, to finally reach Andalusia and Galicia, which in general have suffered less from the scourges of the covid than the rest of Spain. The islands, by their own peculiarity, have followed their own patterns.
According to the latest weekly risk report from the Ministry of Health this Friday (with values of November 8), 12 provinces have a high global risk (adding all the indicators, not just the incidence) and six have already reached the maximum (very high): Lleida, Girona, Huesca, Teruel, La Rioja , León and Gipuzkoa. The latter reports the highest level of transmission in the country, with a cumulative incidence of 1,224 detected cases.
The growth in the number of infections is also having an impact on hospital occupation. Although, thanks to vaccines, the rise in income is much slower than in other waves compared to the rate of infections, a very high transmission also translates into more serious diseases.
The average risk of ICUs throughout the country is, for the moment, medium. But there are already autonomous communities that are beginning to bear considerable healthcare pressure. In Aragon, Catalonia, Castilla y León, La Rioja and Navarra, the alert in these units is high (more than 15% of those admitted are covid patients); while in the Valencian Community and Madrid this threshold is already approaching.
These are levels that are still very far from those that were endured in other waves. This Friday there were 5,569 people admitted to hospitals for covid (which represents 4.48% of their total occupation), compared to more than 10,000 in the fourth and fifth waves; the more than 31,000 of the third and the more than 20,000 of the second (the data of the first is not precise).
The experts consulted in recent days by this newspaper are confident that the levels of the waves prior to vaccination (from the third to back) will not be reached, but some are beginning to worry about a rise in infections that does not decline. Models show that it will continue to rise for at least a couple of weeks. It is difficult to predict much further, but it will be just a very propitious moment for infections due to Christmas celebrations. After the previous Christmas, the deadliest wave of the pandemic arrived in Spain, which reached its peak at the end of January of this year.
To try to cushion the blow, the technicians of the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies directed by Fernando Simón recommended limiting the number of people at the celebrations. But it is a measure that the autonomous communities are not adopting. Catalonia has made a recommendation this Friday to cancel business dinners and lunches on these dates.
The super contagious event that took place in a celebration in Malaga put epidemiologists on alert, who began to recommend extreme precautions. The hospitality sector is already noticing the impact and numerous lunches and dinners have already been canceled, as reported by the sector in various parts of Spain to this newspaper.
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