China has been making strategic moves in recent years to increase its influence globally. The country’s latest diplomatic gambit involves wooing three countries: Singapore, Malaysia, and Spain. China has been leveraging its economic strength and political clout to forge new alliances and deepen existing ties with these nations. The interactions between China and these countries could have far-reaching implications for the global geopolitical landscape. In this article, we dive into China’s diplomatic moves and the potential consequences of these actions.
As the US hosted a Summit for Democracy in an attempt to build a coalition against China, the Prime Ministers of Singapore, Malaysia, and Spain paid court to Chinese President Xi Jinping, who urged them to reject a US bloc against China. While Malaysia secured investment commitments worth RM 170 billion ($38.5 billion) during the trip, Singapore and China unveiled an upgraded “all-round high-quality future-oriented partnership” and expressed their wish to expand their free trade agreement. However, experts warn that the partnership could displease the US, which would closely monitor the collaboration, particularly in technology, and could impose sanctions or selective blacklisting if it suspected China was using Singapore as a back door to access technical knowledge. China’s intent to push the US out of Asia could elevate it to a regional hegemon using bilateral partnerships to weaken multilateral engagement, much like the “divide and conquer” method taught in China’s ancient military treatise, the Art of War.
Although Malaysia is seeking significant investment from China, Singapore has played an adept, behind-the-scenes role supporting US military operations in the region for decades, which it is unlikely to abandon. Furthermore, although Spain and China agreed that the “independent” development of China-EU relations is in the interest of China, Spain, the EU, and the international community, the declaration could be viewed as an attempt to distance the EU from the US. Chinese President Xi Jinping also urged the leaders of Singapore and Malaysia not to join a proposed US alliance against China and to oppose the decoupling or severing industrial and supply chains.
However, there is skepticism among experts about China’s extensive Belt and Road Initiative and its ability to bail out debt-strapped countries involved with the project. Similarly, the large investment commitments secured during diplomatic trips have often failed to materialize, raising cautionary concerns for Malaysia. For instance, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte came back from his trip with $24 billion in promised investment, although very little of this has materialized.
While Singapore’s relationship with China centres on technological and commercial frontiers, Malaysia is more inclined to seek investments. The meeting of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim with Xi Jinping coincided with the American-led Summit for Democracy, which both Prime Ministers did not attend. However, their visits coincided with US efforts to build coalitions against China, which may serve China’s interests.