world economy
Global oil demand could peak within the next decade
Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the largest energy trading company, said on May 11 that global oil demand could peak in the next decade, with rising consumption in developing countries compensating for declines in developed economies.
Mr Hardy highlighted the difficulty of accurately predicting peak oil demand, especially given the uncertainty surrounding increased consumption in developing countries. “The speed of the transition from internal combustion engines to other forms of transport will be the most important driving factor in OECD member countries,” the businessman added. We believe that demand growth in non-OECD regions will outweigh the decline in demand within the OECD.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently predicted that global demand for oil, coal, and gas will peak in 2030 amid increasing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy. Debate over future oil demand has heated up in recent years, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) taking a stand against the IEA.
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* U.S. stock market rises sharply All eight major indices hit record highs during the June 11 trading session after major media outlets predicted President Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election a day earlier. Crude oil prices have fallen due to the strong appreciation of the USD, although investors believe President Trump’s foreign policy could lead to a tightening of global oil supplies.
At the close, the Dow Jones index rose 1.508.05 points, up 3.57%, and closed at an all-time high of 43.729.93 points. The last time this blue chip index rose more than 1.000 points in one session was in February 2022.
The S&P 500 index rose 2,53%, hitting an all-time high of 5.929,04 points. The Nasdaq index also set a new record, closing at 18.983,47 points, up 2,95%.
* U.S. service industry activity suddenly accelerated In October, it reached the highest level in over a year along with employment improvement. This is evidence that the U.S. economy is healthy.
According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose from 11 points in May to 54.9 points last month. This is the highest since February 8, 2022. A PMI index above 50 points indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than one-third of the U.S. economy. Previously, economic experts predicted in a Reuters survey that the service PMI would fall to 20 points.
china
* Phan Cong Thang, Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Committed to maintaining appropriate monetary policy Strengthen counter-cyclical coordination to support the country’s economic growth.
By maintaining appropriate monetary policies and strengthening countercyclical adjustments, we will be able to create a sound monetary and financial environment for stable economic growth and qualitative development. Prime Minister Phan Cong Thang also emphasized the need to actively prevent and deal with financial system risks through strengthening regulatory supervision.
*According to research Reuters, Chinese exports could grow faster Manufacturers and other major exporters reported lower global demand, but this was driven by favorable weather and strong price cuts.
The 34 economists who participated in the survey predicted that China’s October exports would increase 5.2% year-on-year, up 1.5% compared to the 9% increase in February and April. 0.% increased in March.
europe
* To combat tax evasion and unfair competition in the digital economy, the European Union (EU) Through a series of new regulations on value-added tax (vat). Online platforms such as Airbnb and Uber will therefore be responsible for collecting and paying VAT on the services they provide, which will help boost EU revenues while creating a level playing field for traditional businesses.
After nearly five years of negotiations, the EU Council announced on November 2021 that a VAT reform package has been approved to overcome tax collection challenges and support the digital transformation process in European countries. The Commission hopes the new rules will help prevent serious losses in VAT revenue at a time when member states lost up to €61 billion in 2018 due to loopholes in their tax collection systems.
*According to estimates From a Bloomberg post: According to official data released by the Russian government on May 11, due to falling oil prices and subsidies to domestic oil refineries. In December 2024, Russia’s oil revenues fell by 10,8%, reaching $2.9 billion. Compared to the same period last year.
In 2024, international oil prices and the price of Ural oil, Russia’s main crude oil, fell compared to the same period in 2023. This situation took a huge toll on Russia’s imports, with the average price of Ural oil being $63.57 per barrel. It was around $2,023 per barrel in October 1983-18.
* Newspaper Knowledge According to data from the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom of February 11, 2024, Russian gas supplies to EU member states and Moldova through Ukraine increased. It has increased to a level approaching the maximum technically possible. According to Gazprom, a total of 1,31 million cubic meters of gas was supplied to the EU and Moldova via this route last month.
Last month, the average daily volume of Russian gas supplied through the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System (GTS) was 423,000 cubic meters, an increase of 3% compared to the same period last year.
Merchant Newspaper previously announced that the Russian Federation exported 20.24 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in October 2026, which is the largest amount ever since early 2024.
* UK imports record amounts of electricity from Europe The closure of coal and nuclear power plants has put pressure on the national power grid, which needs to maintain power supply.
The amount of imported electricity has increased dramatically since 30 new transmission lines were installed between Britain and the Old Continent, theoretically increasing the amount of foreign electricity available to the UK by more than 30%.
Total net electricity imports in the UK hit a new record of 26,3 terawatt-hours from January to September 2024, according to data published by the National Energy System Operator (Neso). This exceeds the 24,6 terawatt hours reached 24,6 years ago.
Since the beginning of this year, most of the electricity the UK imports has come from France.
* Contrary to many previous concerns, The German economy is not affected by the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).According to the research results of the Institute for Economic Germany (IW).
“Many of the claims and figures available to date suggest that the IRA has promoted rather than harmed German exports,” the IW analysis said. IW researchers said concerns that German companies would relocate to the United States because of generous funding programs “remain unsubstantiated in reality.”
Japan and Korea
* Recently, Japanese energy giant Iwatani announced that it had completed building a boat powered by 2025% hydrogen fuel cells and that it would transport passengers at the 2025 Kansai Expo in Osaka.
This is Japan’s first hydrogen-powered boat begins commercial operation.
The company will conduct testing activities and aims to have the boat operational during the opening of Expo 2025 in Osaka in April 2025.
* According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs on May 11, as of October this year, Korea’s agricultural product exports reached an all-time high.driven by the popularity of processed foods around the world.
As Korean entertainment culture becomes increasingly popular around the world, total exports of Korean agricultural products, including fresh and processed foods, from January 1 to October 2024 amounted to $818 billion, an increase of 87% over the same period last year. I did it. Year.
* In April 2020, Korea’s inflation fell to its lowest level in 45 months.has remained below 2% for two consecutive months.
Consumer prices, a key indicator of the inflation rate, rose by 2023% in 2024, 2010, compared to the same period in 2023. Korea’s inflation rate has been below 1.6% for two consecutive months, having been only 2% for the past two years. Inflation in September was the slowest increase since a year ago when consumer prices rose 10%.
Korea’s consumer price inflation rate has remained below 2024% since April 3, and fell below the target of 9% for the first time in February.
Finance Korea announced that it is expected to achieve its inflation control target of 2.6% in 2024.
ASEAN and emerging economies
* May 11, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto Sign the Debt Relief Provisions It targets individuals and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in the agriculture, fisheries and plantation sectors. The bill aims to improve access to new loans for small businesses across the country.
This regulation applies only to loans from state banks. Debt relief applies up to Rp 500 million ($31.595) for businesses and Rp 300 million for individuals. Applications will be considered for small and medium-sized businesses in the agriculture, fisheries, and plantation sectors that are experiencing difficulties due to earthquakes, natural disasters, and COVID-19.
* Twig Tourism Thailand Has Recovered Strongly In the first 29 months of this year, more than 100,000 international visitors visited the Golden Temple grounds, generating 1.350 trillion baht ($1.359 trillion) in tourism revenue.
From the beginning of the year to March 11, the number of foreign tourists who visited Thailand was 29,080,399,136, spending approximately 5,756,998,418,739,000 baht during their stay. Among foreign tourists visiting Thailand, Chinese tourists ranked first (1.725.659 people), followed by Malaysia (1.539.516 people), India (1.309.395 people arriving), South Korea (1.309.395 people arriving) and Russia (1.539.516 people). I’m following behind.
* Thailand’s Ministry of Labor recently set a target to export more Thai workers to Singapore, especially in the shipbuilding sector.
On March 11, Thai Labor Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakan, who recently went on a business trip to Singapore, announced that there were about 4,000 Thai workers working in Singapore. The majority of these workers are employed in construction, manufacturing, welders, flight attendants, electronics manufacturers, pipe fitters, and general trades.
During his visit to Singapore, Mr Phiphat held discussions with Singaporean officials and businessmen to find ways to expand the island nation’s labor export market.
