More than four months after the announcement of the production cut, Russia’s seaborne crude oil supply is finally starting to show signs of a decline.
Ship-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg and confirmed by other data sources showed that crude exports from western Russian ports rose from February through late June, but fell in the four weeks to July 9. fell below the February average.
Overall Russian seaborne crude oil exports fell to an average of 2.86 million barrels per day in the week ending July 9. This is more than 1 million barrels per day lower than the previous week. 80% of the decline came from exports from ports in western Russia.
Russia has previously said the cut in supply would affect exports from its Baltic and Black Sea ports. Crude supplies fell sharply in the week ending June 25, but there is no clear evidence of maintenance at Russian ports during this period.
With few European buyers of Russian oil, the decline in crude supplies has primarily affected exports to Asia. Crude oil exports to Asia fell to their lowest level since mid-January. If crude oil exports decrease, Russia’s export tariff revenue will decrease. Last week was down 29% from the previous week.
In February, Russia announced that it would cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in retaliation for US and European sanctions and oil price caps. After that, in July, Russia announced plans to cut crude oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August in line with Saudi Arabia’s announcement to extend its voluntary production cuts.
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news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Original title:Russian Oil Flows Show First Signs of Drop Months After Cuts Vow(excerpt)
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2023-07-11 23:13:00
