Should you de-scale at the same rate as the rest of Spain?

Since the coronavirus crisis began to advance timidly within our borders, one region has stood out above the rest within saturation, horror and widespread tragedy. Madrid has become the nerve center of the pandemic in Spain, and is now in focus again due to a suspicious rebound: in the last 24 hours, 981 new infections have been registered in the region alone, triple that of the previous day when 363 more positives were registered and not counting those diagnosed with serological tests. In total, the number of infections in Madrid stands at 60,765 while the deceased reached 8,105, according to the latest official balance from the Ministry of Health.

The stark reality offered by the figures coincides with one of the most important announcements since the state of alarm began: the plan of “gradual and asymmetric” de-escalation that the Government has prepared for the progressive lack of control of the population, a guide that, despite to have defined the criteria on what can or cannot be done in each of the four established phases, leaves unknowns such as the absence of a defined calendar and the parameters that will determine which provinces – chosen unit of measure – will change phases, how and when . The general horizon? End of June.

According to government calculations, the entire country is expected to enter phase 0 next Monday, May 4, although in the successive stages not all territories will enter at the same time. In the Community of Madrid they rule out staying the last ones – with the economic and social implications that this entails – and are already working on a plan to “reopen as soon as possible” although with strong security measures. At this point, a question arises: should Madrid de-escalate at the same rate as the rest of the provinces? Are you even ready to enter Phase 0 after registering nearly 1,000 cases in a single day?

The former PSOE minister and economist Miguel Sebastián believes that this is “nonsense.” He affirms not only that Madrid must de-escalate slower, but questions that he must enter the first phase if he wants. It also links the optimistic data of the last days with the ‘hibernation’ at Easter, and the latest spikes with the subsequent revival of the economy, which in Madrid involves, among other consequences, a greater influx of public transport, one of the outbreaks of contagion.

«In the last five days, only Madrid has had more cases than the whole of Greece in the entire pandemic; in the last 10 days, more than all of Australia; in the last 15 days, more than all of South Korea. Are we really in Madrid ready for phase 0? “Asked Sebastián, through a message in Twitter.

Lights and shadows to leave Madrid behind

The question is clear. Is Madrid ready to advance at the same rate as the rest of Spain or will it be the last to reach the ‘new normal’? But the answer is hesitant and full of “uncertainty.” Several experts consulted by The Independent coincide in pointing out that Madrid’s own idiosyncrasy – some link it in this process to the decisions made regarding Barcelona – indicates that “it is reasonable that its de-escalation be slower” and progress “with its own pace and even with measures differentiated », indicates the economist and former deputy of Citizens Francisco de la Torre.

The reasonable thing is that “Madrid advances at its own pace and even with differentiated measures”

However, he points out that “it is not correct” to assert with complete certainty that the last one should remain because, beyond the number of infections, “there is no data to support this statement”. The economist points out the absence of thresholds defined by the Government and the existence of other parameters beyond the epidemiological one, such as the strength of the health system or economic weaknesses. “You have to understand that the pressure to confine Madrid is much greater than that of Chiclana de la Frontera,” he exemplifies. “And Madrid accounts for 20% of GDP,” he recalls.

But there are more edges that add to the unknown about the symmetrical or asymmetric lack of precision in the capital. Among them, the absence of the results of the seroprevalence study and the lack of traceability of infections before decreeing measures. And Madrid, compared to the rest of the regions, may be the territory with the highest number immunized against the virus, so “a regrowth would not be as aggressive as a new outbreak in places where there have been hardly any cases,” insists Francisco de la Torre for explain the complexity of the matter. In addition, “in Madrid contagions were triggered in large part by the massive protests of the weekend of March 8, and that will not happen again.”

“Define the threshold that we are willing to bear”

“It is true that as more people have passed the disease, there will be more immunity”, agrees with the economist José Ángel Morales, professor in the Department of Cell Biology at the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), but “it must go slower than the rest », He asserts, taking as reference the data of the last days.

The capital has contagion ‘pluses’, such as mobility and its wide metropolitan area, as Fernando Rodríguez Artalejo, director of Preventive Medicine and Public Health at the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM), recalls, so He asks for “prudence” when taking measures, although he also does not reveal what would be the best decision for the “complexity” of Madrid’s reality and the lack of data. «Whether Madrid leaves earlier or not is not a black or white decision. It may be yes, but with nuances, “he says.

Those «nuances» that Artalejo points out are corroborated by the CSIC scientist, Luis Miller. In his opinion, “there will not be a unilateral decision that leaves behind an autonomous community” on the part of the Government, and opens the door to a possible scenario: that Madrid advance together with all the autonomies but with differentiated measures “that are left in the hands of the region itself “, as the concrete action in its unique public transport.

“Madrid has many connotations that the rest of the sites do not have,” stresses Javier Lozano, a doctor and former president of the Spanish Society for Preventive Medicine, Public Health and Hygiene (SEMPSPH), “and this will require differentiated regulations.” For example, «How are we going to keep a meter away in the Madrid Metro? How are they going to guarantee it? There is still much to be solved », ditch.

In short, everyone agrees in pointing out that the decision is made, it will not be known if it has been right or wrong until its consequences are known due to the lack of data and, above all, tests. “These kinds of decisions are very dizzying,” adds Francisco de la Torre. “I would not like to be in the shoes of those who have to take them, for all that it entails,” he says.

“We must be clear about something,” says the UAM epidemiologist. “As soon as the measures are relaxed, the contagions will rise. Now there will come a moral dilemma: define the threshold of death and contagion that we are willing to bear “, in exchange for nothing more and nothing less than freedom.

The PP will pressure Sánchez: «Madrid cannot wait»

The Madrid City Council is already preparing its own de-escalation plan with which to put pressure on the Government – the sole command is held by the Ministry of Health – so that it does not relegate Madrid to the last starting blocks on the return to normality. The premise is clear: they will not accept a ‘no’ for an answer.

“The priority is to revive the city. There are many, many people in need, businesses and premises that will go bankrupt. We need to de-scale with speed and certainty », indicate municipal sources. «Madrid cannot wait. We do not want to be the last », they assert.

The plan orchestrated from Madrid will have several edges – several companies have been contracted and a “line of contacts with consultancies and consultancies” has been established to orchestrate how to de-escalate “with all the guarantees” – but the main one will come from a political perspective : a great agreement with the opposition that, according to the same sources, could be announced at the end of the week to urge the Government to a swift but guaranteeing lack of confidence in the capital of Spain.

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