/ world today news/ The Ministry of National Defense of Turkey, in coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, continues contacts with the emissaries of the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine, with the aim of resuming the grain deal. “We hope that this initiative, which confirmed the possibility of resolving all crises through goodwill and dialogue, will be continued,” a Turkish military official told local media.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed on August 8 to maintain contacts with Moscow to persuade Russian partners to return to the grain deal. Erdogan stressed that the scope of the agreement “will be expanded”.
At the same time, the Turkish leader called on Western countries to fulfill the promises made to Moscow, and recalled that supplying African countries with grain is a “sensitive issue” for Russia.
Our country, we remind you, about three weeks ago withdrew from the deal (also known as the Black Sea Agreement), which, among other things, guaranteed the unhindered export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports. Since July 17, Moscow has not participated in the agreement, as a significant part of its clauses have not been implemented – the export of Russian food and fertilizers is still blocked, and the Russian Agricultural Bank (“Rosselkhozbank”) has not been reconnected to the SWIFT payment system.
In addition, the “partners of the agreement” had to: resume the supply of Western spare parts for our agricultural machinery, remove all obstacles to the charter of ships and insure them for the needs of the export of agricultural products, resume the operation of the Tolyati Ammonia Pipeline- Odessa and the unblocking of Russian assets related to agriculture.
None of the terms of the July 22, 2022 Istanbul Agreement, which Russia was interested in, have been fulfilled, as Vladimir Putin recalled at the recent Russia-Africa summit.
At the same time, during the transaction, 32.8 million tons of cargo were exported from the ports of Ukraine, of which more than 70% were sent to countries with high and above middle income levels, leaving less than 3% of the share of Africans and the other poorest. And Kiev is trying to act in the same mode. On August 10, the Ukrainian Navy announced temporary corridors in the Black Sea for ships going to or from the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhno. But let’s recall that after Russia’s withdrawal from the deal, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced: from July 20, all ships heading to Ukrainian ports are considered carriers of military cargo.
And now Erdoğan offers to back down, to return the situation to July 17, but with some “expansion of the scale” of the deal. The question is what “expansion” Ankara can offer to break out of the “dead end” Erdogan mentioned, caused by the West’s unwillingness or inability to fulfill its obligations.
Four Turkish options
“Judging by Erdoğan’s initial statement, he had in mind first of all the time, that is, the conclusion of a deal for a long period, not a short one with a constant extension,” explains Turkologist journalist Yashar Niyazbayev. Apparently, the Turkish leader expects that if the deal is concluded for a long period, then the West will have more time to realize the need to fulfill its promises, and Moscow will not have a legal opportunity to withdraw from the deal due to the fact that the West is in no hurry with its performance. According to the expert, this is the first option that Ankara can offer.
Such “enlargement” is unlikely to suit Russia, if only because it is no longer ready to take the first steps and perform acts of goodwill. “In this situation, Moscow can no longer renew in advance – only after receiving a suitable advance from the other side,” Niyazbaev points out.
The second option is to expand the scope. “We can talk about an attempt to include in it not only grain, but also other types of agricultural production. Such an idea has been expressed many times,” reminded Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies.
The proposal is, of course, interesting, but there is an important “but”. The fact is that it is not only about forcing the West to fulfill its obligations, but also about expanding the list of lifted sanctions. And the USA and the EU, which is obvious, are unlikely to agree to this, because it will be perceived in the world as the collapse of the entire sanctions policy. Some may be left with the impression that Russia has begun to systematically withdraw from sanctions.
The third option is to expand the number of signatories. The deal can be extended by other participants. “Western (as guarantors of the absence of any export barriers or restrictions) and non-Western grain consumers,” notes Suslov.
This option would be good if consumers in the form of countries from the Global South had some effective levers to influence Western governments. If including consumers in the deal can force the West to fulfill its obligations. However, there are no such possibilities now. “Moscow extended these agreements based on the fact that Turkey, the United Nations and other bodies promised it to persuade the West to remove these restrictions,” Niyazbaev recalls.
Finally, the fourth option for expansion is deepening the topic. The transformation of the deal from a grain export instrument into a kind of negotiation platform where the achievement of sustainable peace in Ukraine will be discussed. However, such a scenario is also unlikely, mainly because the conditions for these negotiations have not yet been created. Moscow does not believe in the willingness of the West to even honor the grain deal. That is why the reasonable question arises: “How in such a situation can we talk about the implementation of a package, multi-stage peace plan?”
Ankara accepts Moscow’s arguments
In this way, Erdogan’s plans for “renewal and expansion” will most likely not be realized, which the Turkish president himself understands.
“Until recently, Erdogan expressed full and absolute confidence that he would be able to negotiate with Russia to extend the deal. Now there is less faith in his words — obviously, against the background of the large-scale Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports and the categorical statements of Kremlin representatives,” Niyazbaev notes.
This failure is unlikely to affect relations between Ankara and Moscow in any way. Yes, the Turkish leader needs a deal and it is important above all for economic reasons. “The fact is that, unlike its neighbors who have the opportunity to sell raw materials, Turkey does not have such reserves and focuses on selling processed goods. In particular, flour – Turkey is one of the largest suppliers of this product in the world,” Niyazbaev recalled.
Through the grain deal, Turkey was able to further increase its trade volumes, especially with Africa. And if the country stops receiving grain, it may lose its positions, the expert noted. At the same time, he noted, Erdogan understands Moscow’s refusal to extend the agreements.
“The Turkish president spoke of dishonest, contradictory actions on the part of the West, that Moscow did not get from the deal what it was promised. He said that Russia’s interests should be taken into account,” Niyazbaev pointed out. “And the Turkish media recognize Russia’s right to withdraw from the deal – they believe that in the conditions Moscow is in, the decision to withdraw was correct. That Russia got nothing from it. And now the Turks only hope that Erdogan will be able to negotiate with Russia under new conditions,” adds the expert.
Weakening the enemy is more expensive than revenue
But the question arises: “Does Moscow really need to negotiate a deal under some new conditions?” The Black Sea Agreement itself is not very popular in Russian society.
On the other hand, it is in Russia’s interest to block access to the world market of one of our main export goods – grain and fertilizers. “If the barriers and obstacles to the export of Russian food are completely removed in the form in which they were expressed by Putin, then the deal can be resumed,” notes Suslov. “But without the full implementation of Russian conditions and requirements, there is no point in resuming it. It is better to negotiate with Turkey and other countries for preferential conditions for the export of Russian grain and food,” he believes.
If the grain deal is fully implemented, Russia will gain much more from it than Ukraine, because the Russian Federation has more grain and more grain terminals. More grain money means more CBO investment.
However, this logic does not always work. According to one version, it is better for Moscow to lose a lot of money, but at the same time not to allow Ukraine to earn even a little money. “Moscow is interested in doing maximum damage to the Ukrainian economy by making it unviable, depriving it of its export potential and ways to make money. This, among other things, will push the West towards a settlement, because the less money Ukraine itself earns, the more the West must help it,” Suslov points out.
It seems that the logic is strange – the West is already helping Ukraine and will help it compensate for all costs (as long as Russia holds out – no one compensates for its losses from the interruption of exports). But here you need to understand that the Western population is less and less supportive of the idea of financing the regime in Kiev, especially considering that more and more money is needed for this financing. For example, in the US, more than 50% of the population is in favor of refusing additional distribution of funds. “The termination of the grain deal imposes additional financial costs on the West, making Ukraine less viable. And this corresponds to Russian interests in the terms of the SVO,” Suslov summarizes.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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