“We have not yet reached the peak“Covid-19 epidemic, insisted Wednesday Emmanuel André, inter-federal spokesperson Covid-19. Belgium recorded a significant increase in hospital admissions and intensive care admissions on Wednesday. “The situation is still epidemic”, he is “extremely important to maintain containment“.
On Tuesday, 434 patients with Covid-19 were hospitalized. And 2,152 beds, of which 474 (+93 compared to the previous day) in intensive care, were occupied by infected people. Three hundred and twenty-two are on respiratory assistance (+40). Belgium also screened a total of 4,937 cases of contamination (+ 668). There are now 178 deaths from the epidemic, including 56 more in 24 hours. But, qualify the experts, some deaths date back to the previous days, in particular because they took place in a nursing home.
Overall, in terms of hospitalizations and ICU admissions, there is a doubling every three days, says Gregory Kozyreff, specialist in population dynamics (ULB). We therefore do not yet see any decline in the curves. Difficult however to make real “deterministic” predictions when the figures are still relatively “low”. At this point it is complicated, for example, to differentiate between what may be fluctuations or the start of a trend. In short, “The drop in the number of new hospitalizations in the last two days could be a fluctuation or it is the increase on Wednesday that could itself be a fluctuation …”
“Containment remains effective”
Faced with the numbers, “us, what we would have liked is that we begin to have a stabilization of the figures in terms of hospitalizations and the number of cases diagnosed. This is not the case. We are still in the expression of the epidemic, in the ascending phase of the curve, analyzes the epidemiologist Yves Coppieters (ULB). However, it cannot be said that containment is not effective. Containment remains effective, because potentially, without it, we would have had many more cases and hospital bottlenecks. “ To be more precise, since March 22, experts had hoped for an effect from the first measures taken on March 12. On the other hand, the stricter containment measures taken from the following Wednesday could start to have their effects. “from March 26 or 27” : “The first measurements were not as radical as the second measurements. On March 13, we were still on the terraces, on weekends, people were walking in the parks, and the real confinement only arrived on Wednesday It was not until the past weekend that the streets began to be empty, and that a discipline was installed, in the shops, for example. The measures are ‘more’ surely respected, ‘ well respected, I’m not sure. There is still a series of false beliefs, of misunderstandings that make people not fully adopt personal protection gestures, which can lead to inappropriate gestures ( misuse of masks in the street) or dangerous gestures (not washing your hands properly, for example). “
On the other hand, there are certain categories of people where the perception of risk is lower, such as young people and children, or other groups of populations in cultural and social contexts which do not allow to fully grasp the danger or who do not have the adequate environment to implement protective barrier measures.
Thus, a Test-Purchasing study on 1,000 people indicates that 23% of the population does not strictly follow the confinement recommendations. Among 18 to 21 year olds, it’s 44%. And only 24% and 39% of people who presented one symptom or several symptoms would respect a strict quarantine.
Should these measures then be tightened? Stricter confinement would aim at achieving zero human-to-human contact between people outside the family unit. A much stronger solution to prevent the spread of the disease. This would require a change in a series of political decisions, ranging from limiting exit to limiting certain professional sectors. “It’s a political choice. Friday, there is the National Security Council, there is a probability that they can go in this direction, as the French did two days ago. I don’t think that the current curves can tell us that it should be done; we are not in a situation that would require this strict confinement, since the current one works: our health systems are not congested, giving all patients the chance to receive the best possible treatment. “
Wait for Friday or the weekend
If the curve continues to increase beyond a certain time, the situation will change: “As long as we are in the period when we expect an effectiveness of the measures taken, we must wait and observe the curve. Once we are in the period of expected effectiveness of the second measures taken by the government, c “ie from 26-27 March, there, frankly, it will be necessary to arrive at a stabilization of the curve, otherwise it will be necessary to harden the level of confinement.”
Faced with possible hardening,
“people will stick to it if there is good communication, good information, that they do not have the impression of gray areas in what is happening. People are well aware of the danger. And sensitized. ”
For his colleague Simon Dellicour, also an epidemiologist at the ULB, it may even be necessary to wait until the weekend, March 28-29, to see a first effect (on hospitalizations) of Wednesday’s containment measures latest. For him, the first effects of the measures of March 12 (schools closed …) could be declared between Monday and Friday of this week. “Monday and Tuesday, we had a positive start to the signal, this Wednesday the numbers are not as good. We will have to see what data we will have Thursday and Friday, but it can be confirmed in one direction as in the other. you have to focus on the trend rather than on the figures for a day, especially since these can sometimes be corrected or adjusted a posteriori. Friday evening, we will probably not yet have measures of the impact of second measures on Wednesday, which are stronger. I’m not saying here that it doesn’t make sense to take stronger measures on Friday evening, but it would be stronger measures taken when we may not have therefore not yet the impact of the second measures. In this case, it could be preventive measures. A precautionary principle. “ In this scenario, the National Security Council would therefore make its decision before knowing the impact of the second measures. “But it’s not necessarily a bad thingcontinues Mr. Dellicour. Even if they do not yet know if the second measures have an impact on hospitalizations, this is not why it is not the right timing to make a third wave of measures or to pronounce the extension of the current ones. There is a lag time and you don’t always have the luxury of having the answer encrypted before having to take the next steps. Always anticipate. And it’s better to be too careful. “
“We are not going to anticipate”
When asked whether to expect more containment after Friday, the crisis center responded that “since the beginning of the management of this pandemic, it is experts who best advise the authorities to take measures. Friday, a National Security Council is convened. We will monitor the situation every day. Currently, the enhanced measures have been decided until April 5, and what is needed today is to comply with them. We are not now going to anticipate possible decisions. “
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