Mexico City. The Mexican government anticipates that the Mexican economy will grow between 2 and 3 percent next year, indicate the General Economic Policy Criteria for 2025 presented this Friday by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP).
This estimate remains unchanged with respect to the Pre Criteria that were presented in April of this year.
The document indicates that the Treasury made an adjustment in its projections for economic growth this year. They went from a range of between 2.5 and 3.5 percent to one between 1.5 and 2.5 percent.
“2025 is shaping up to be a year of sustainable and well-diversified economic growth. The combination of strategic investments, trade integration and expansion of key sectors will allow the country’s economic stability to be consolidated, fight poverty, reduce inequality and promote inclusive well-being for present and future generations,” states the document that is part of the first package. economic presented by the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Oil price and exchange rate
According to the document, the price of the Mexican oil mix is expected to close 2024 at $70.7 per barrel and by 2025 it is expected to be $57.8 per barrel.
Previously, the government forecast that the mixture would have an average price of $71.3 per barrel at the end of this year and $58.4 per barrel in 2025.
SHCP Photo
According to the document, it is anticipated that the exchange rate will close in 2024 at a level of 19.70 pesos per dollar and in 2025 it will reach 18.5 units per greenback.
In April, the agency projected that it would close 2024 at a level of 17.8 pesos per dollar and by 2025 it would be at 18 units per dollar.
Inflation and interest rate
The General Criteria establish that the government expects inflation to close this year at a level of 4.3 percent and the following year to decrease to 3.5 percent, so said indicator would already be within the range of the Bank of Mexico (BdeM)—which is of 3 percent, with one percentage point higher or lower—.
The projection for the end of 2024 is higher compared to what was projected in April, when inflation was anticipated to close at 3.8 percent, the same as the following year, as it was expected to be 3.3 percent.
Photo The Day
For the central bank’s interest rate – the instrument that sets the cost at which companies and families are financed – the Treasury expects that it will close 2024 at 10 percent and at the end of 2025 it will decrease to 8 percent.
These estimates are higher compared to what was expected in April, since the government anticipated that the reference rate will end this year at a level of 9.5 percent and next year at 7 percent.
Considerations
According to the Treasury, for the following year it is expected that the growth of national activity “will come mainly from domestic demand. Consumption will continue to increase due to internal factors and various public policies that will promote its growth. Among the former, a dynamic and inclusive labor market stands out, with salary increases that adequately compensate workers and provide them with greater purchasing power without generating disruptions in price formation.
The new administration also notes that “higher levels of private investment driven by global trade regionalization trends are expected, as well as an increase in foreign investment flows focused on sustainability and technological innovation.”
While public investment “will boost the deployment of telecommunications services throughout the country, it will increase digitalization and the simplification of processes and procedures, which will encourage the creation of new companies, the generation of jobs and the greater use of technology in the services sector”.
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#SHCP #forecasts #economic #growth
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Considering the potential for global economic slowdowns and inflationary pressures, what specific policy measures could the Mexican government implement to mitigate risks and ensure sustainable economic growth in 2025?
## Interview: Mexico’s Economic Outlook for 2025
**Introduction**
Welcome to World-Today-News, where we delve into the most pressing economic issues facing our world. Today, we’re focusing on Mexico, a nation poised for growth and facing a complex economic landscape. To help us understand the latest forecasts and their implications, we have with us two distinguished guests:
* **Dr. [Guest 1 Name and Credentials]:** A leading economist specializing in Latin American economies.
* **[Guest 2 Name and Credentials]:** An expert in Mexican international trade and finance.
**Section 1: Growth Prospects and Economic Drivers**
**Interviewer:**
Dr. [Guest 1 Name], the Mexican government projects a growth rate of 2-3% for 2025, unchanged from previous estimates. Could you shed some light on the factors contributing to this projected growth? What are the key drivers behind this optimism, and what potential challenges might hinder this growth trajectory?
**Dr. [Guest 1 Name]:**
**(Guest 1 provides their analysis, addressing factors like domestic demand, public investment, trade, and potential challenges like global economic slowdowns, inflation, etc.)**
**Interviewer:**
[Guest 2 Name], the article mentions “strategic investments, trade integration, and expansion of key sectors” as contributors to the projected growth. Could you elaborate on these points, specifically focusing on Mexico’s role in regional and global trade in the coming years?
**[Guest 2 Name]:**
**(Guest 2 discusses the role of trade agreements, specific sectors, potential export growth areas, and challenges in the global trade environment.)**
**Section 2: Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Peso**
**Interviewer:**
The SHCP predicts inflation to be 4.3% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025, slightly higher than previously anticipated. [Guest 2 name], what factors are likely driving this inflationary pressure? How might the
Bank of Mexico respond to these projections, and what impact could that have on the Mexican economy and peso exchange rate?
**[Guest 2 Name]:**
**(Guest 2 analyzes the inflationary pressures, discusses the Bank of Mexico’s potential monetary policy responses, and assesses the potential impact on the Mexican economy, borrowing costs, and the exchange rate.)**
**Section 3: Long-Term Economic Stability and Distribution**
**Interviewer:**
Dr. [Guest 1 Name], the article emphasizes “inclusive well-being” anda reduction in inequality as key goals. How can Mexico ensure that economic growth translates into tangible benefits for all its citizens? What policies could be implemented to address income inequality and promote broader social development alongside economic expansion?
**Dr. [Guest 1 Name]:**
**(Guest 1 discusses policies like investment in education, healthcare, social safety nets, job creation initiatives, and the importance of inclusive growth strategies.)**
**Interviewer:**
Do you both have any final thoughts on the overall outlook for Mexico’s economy in the coming years? What are the biggest opportunities and potential risks to watch for?
**(Both guests offer their concluding remarks, highlighting key opportunities and risks, and potentially offering dissenting or nuanced perspectives.)**
**Outro:**
Thank you, Dr. [Guest 1 Name] and [Guest 2 Name], for providing us with valuable insights into Mexico’s economic outlook.
**(Interviewer summarizes key points and invites viewers to share their thoughts and engage in the discussion.)**
