The numbers speak for themselves: Only 210 new homes were sold in Gironde in the 1st quarter of 2023. This is 72% less than in the 1st quarter of 2022 and it is less than the 230 homes sold in the Basque Country, which is normally a significantly smaller market. We have never observed such a strong drop! “, alarmed Gonzague Douniau, the vice-president of the Federation of property developers (FPI) of New Aquitaine and regional director of Bouygues Immobilier. This projects the activity of 2023 between 1,000 and 2,000 homes sold in Gironde against another 2,800 sales last year and 5,400 sales at the peak of 2019.
If the situation is particularly heavy in Gironde, the regional lung of construction, the situation is hardly less bad in New Aquitaine with a drop of -43% in sales by developers in the first quarter. At the end of April 2023, the number of housing starts in the region also fell by -19% (compared to -9% in France as a whole) and that of building permits granted by -21% (compared to -14% in France as a whole), according to the FFB Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
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A real downfall that nothing seems to stop in Gironde in a department which nevertheless continues to attract 20,000 new inhabitants each year: “ We have no reason to think that the 2nd quarter was better than the first while what we retain of the government’s plan [présenté le 5 juin, NDLR] is that it does not live up to our expectations and that it will not solve our difficulties “, continues Gonzague Douniau, in unison with the national FPI authorities and other players in the sector.
A scissor effect
Sales of new homes are bearing the brunt of the rise in mortgage rates, which have risen in twelve months from 1.6% to 3.6% for a 20-year loan. ” Buyer withdrawals have doubled in one year to reach 50%: this means that one out of two buyers has been forced to abandon their project along the way! », adds Pierre Vital. The president of the regional REIT also points to the disappearance of rental investors, the number of which has been divided almost by ten in Gironde in 2023, when it is very often this clientele, which is quick to position itself, which makes it possible to secure the programs.
But if, logically, the marketing times increase, on the other hand the prices do not decrease in the new. ” They even increased by 9% in one year to €5,090/m2 in the Bordeaux metropolitan area, compared to €4,700/m2 at the start of 2022 and €4,330/m2 in 2019. This is explained by a supply which is decreasing while demand has remained still strong until autumn 2022 “says Gonzague Douniau. At the same time, construction costs are also on the rise, fueled by environmental standards and inflation in the price of materials. Girondin developers are thus building at €2,000/m2 today, against another €1,700 before the Covid.
“The production apparatus will suffer”
The consequences are not long in coming and, despite the significant boost voted by Bordeaux Métropole, the construction of social rental housing, half of which is carried by developers, should seriously cough up, as will the home ownership projects of individuals. But it is also the production apparatus that is crumbling with already, at the national level, 250 bankruptcies of real estate agencies, 280 of construction of individual houses and 40 of real estate developers recorded since January 1 by the firm Altarès.
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In New Aquitaine, vigilance has given way to strong concern which bodes well for difficult months on the employment front. Hiring freezes and the non-renewal of short contracts are already the rule among promoters.
« This situation reshuffles the market cards and carries a significant risk for the profession with very different situations depending on cash flow issues and current project schedules. », Understates Pierre Vital.
While Girondin promoters are already sticking out their tongues, the regional president of the FPI considers ” that we can expect real problems for players of all sizes: large ones who could be forced to reduce their teams and small ones who could risk disappearing. In total, if nothing changes, we are talking about 15 to 20% fewer jobs… »
15,000 jobs at stake
A concern and an estimate shared by Marie-Ange Gay-Ramos, the president of the FFB (French Building Federation) Nouvelle-Aquitaine, who has just been re-elected for three years.
“We were despised by the government with whom we worked a lot without being heard. It is a disaster that can be quantified in the region at a risk of losing 15,000 jobs! »warns the president of a regional sector which weighs more than 100,000 direct jobs. “Construction companies still have visibility until the end of 2023, but then there’s not much left for 2024. In six to eight months, it’s going to be very problematic, a real slump… The housing division of the FFB fears losing a third of its members in the coming months. »
At the end of 2022, i.e. before the crisis worsened in the first half of 2023, declarations prior to hiring in the construction industry were already down -8% over one year in Gironde, while liquidations jumped 41.1%. But this only represents 247 companies liquidated for a thousand jobs while 3,500 companies were created in parallel (+16%). To reverse the trend, the REIT and other professional federations continue to demand an easing of credit conditions and the renewal of a rental investment scheme.
As for the track of the renovation of the existing park, it will only represent a partial relief according to Marie-Ange Gay Ramos: ” We are equipped for these sites and we are recruiting to strengthen ourselves, but this cannot compensate for the collapse of new construction, which represents 35% of the activity of our companies. “. At the end of 2022, housing maintenance and renovation work increased by 2.4% year-on-year.
2023-06-15 04:20:09
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