American Institute for Military Research (ISW) publishes another summary of the situation at the front. Here are the main conclusions:
The main efforts of Russian troops are aimed at attempts to get closer to Severodonetsk. As noted in the ISW report, the desire to win the battle for this city can be explained by the desire to respond to criticism to the overall course of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine in the media space. Assessing the details of the Russian offensive in the Luhansk region, US experts write that the Russian army is trying to establish control over the roads leading to Lisichansk and Bakhmut, but did not make much progress.
We remind you that yesterday the Russian media reported over 15,000 Ukrainian army, including mercenaries, in the valley between Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.
Citing data from the Ukrainian General Staff, ISW writes that the Russian army is trying to replenish its units and accumulate reserves for further offensive against Slavyansk in the Donetsk region. According to experts from the institute, Russian troops made several unsuccessful attempts to advance on the city on May 17. At the same time, they have made limited progress in the Lyman region.
Lugansk and Severodonetsk – the focus of the conflict in Ukraine
Russia is likely to resort more and more to indiscriminate artillery fire
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In the direction of Kharkiv Ukrainian troops continue to push the Russian army back. According to Oleg Sinegubov, head of the Kharkiv regional administration, the Russians are trying to counter a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the direction of Volchansk, an important transport hub about 90 km from Kharkiv. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian armed forces continue to threaten Russian delivery routes on their way from Volchansk to Izyum. According to the Pentagon, Russia probably continues to hold positions near Kharkiv, in particular settlements on the way to Belgorod.
In the southern direction – Kherson and Zaporozhye regions – According to ISW, the Russian forces have not been active and continue to strengthen their defensive positions.
Ukrainian media reported this morning about missile strikes on the Dnieper and Nikolaev.
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The head of the Dnipro regional administration Valentin Reznichenko said that the Dnieper was shelled with rockets at night. One of the missiles was intercepted by the Ukrainian air defense, and the wreckage fell on the territory of private homes. The second missile destroyed a transport infrastructure facility.
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Ukraine: Russia is preparing for a protracted war
Efforts are now focused on encircling and destroying groups of Ukraine’s armed forces in Donetsk and Luhansk.
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ISW also commented the situation in Azovstal.
The defenders of Mariupolwhich were blocked at the plant for two months, most likely they surrendered, after the Ukrainian authorities have agreed with the Kremlin the conditions for their withdrawal from the company. US experts believe the Kremlin may have agreed to a deal to declare full control of Mariupol and thus to counteract discontent on social media from the recent defeat of Russian troops at the Seversky Donets Pass and from the general lack of progress in the Donbass offensive and the slow pace of the invasion in general.
While The Kremlin may refuse to exchange defenders of Mariupol and recall the statements of deputies from the State Duma, who want by law to ban the exchange or to return the death penalty especially for these prisoners of war.
The institute notes that the evacuation of Azovstal may cause discontent in Russiaas Russian propaganda had previously seriously advertised the “successful attacks” on Azovstal and had created an expectation of the destruction of Mariupol’s defenders.
“For some Russians, it may be difficult to reconcile the triumphant message with the sudden negotiations leading to an agreed capitulation,” the ISW report said.
The Kremlin could ignore Russian Duma fears or use them to sabotage talks with Ukraine, the report said.
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The last defenders of Mariupol were ordered to save their lives
Ukrainian authorities say they know the number of Ukrainian servicemen still at the Azovstal plant
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