“Severe” escalation between Hezbollah and Israel

Events accelerated on Wednesday in the ongoing conflict between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, on the edge of the war in Gaza, which led observers to emphasize the need to use a diplomatic solution instead of escalation.

On Wednesday, Hezbollah said it launched a missile that reached Israel’s Tel Aviv region, as Israel’s raids extended to reach deep into Lebanon over a distance of about 120 km, for the first time in case in the history of the conflict. between them.

This also comes on the sidelines of a discussion in Israel about a possible ground attack on southern Lebanon.

Commenting on this, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the threat of escalation in the Middle East is “real,” and that Washington and its allies are working hard to prevent a full-scale war between Israel and the Lebanese group. Hezbollah.

“Moderate level of concern”

Despite these developments, Israeli political analyst Amir Oren said that Hezbollah and Israel have so far been “relatively able” to maintain “a moderate level of intensity, not a high level,” the identify each party’s compliance with the rules of engagement. .

Oren confirmed in an interview with:Alhurra channel “So far, the rules of engagement have been respected,” stressing that Israel focused on what it described as “only a specific category of targets.”

In response to a comment related to the idea raised by some observers that Hezbollah was “the only one who respected the rules of engagement,” and the ability to change this to target civilians in Israel, Oren pointed out that it was a Lebanese group. that the war began on the eighth of October last “without any provocation.” He said: “Israel did not start the war, and over 11 months there was blow after blow across the border.”

He said while hosting the program “Al-Hurra Al-Laila”, “The leader of Hezbollah unilaterally stopped this exchange, but if he had done that two weeks ago, he would not have the pager attacks had occurred, and the target would not have occurred. happened.”

He said Hezbollah was targeting civilians, including Arab civilians in border towns, adding that “Hezbollah does not respect the rules of engagement.”

In his opinion, “it is not inevitable that the conflict will expand regionally,” based on the escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.

In addition, Oren says, even if Hezbollah retreats to an enclave outside the Litani River, it can launch missiles into Israel from there. He asked, “How long will the war of rebirth last? Diplomacy is the solution.”

He added: “If we can achieve this along with a ceasefire in Gaza without bloodshed, that’s even better.”

ground attack?

Oren also emphasizes that Israel does not want to enter Lebanon because they know very well that its presence as an occupying force will expose it to attack and will not achieve the objectives of the campaign, as he said.

On the other hand, he says that if Hezbollah and Hamas decide to go to war, “Israel cannot end this war,” adding, “Therefore, all parties must -reach an agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza and southern Lebanon. “

In the context of his speech about the ability of the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes, Oren said that “the restoration of the destroyed homes needs about a year or more,” and said he will not return if the Israeli army returns to southern Lebanon. “They want to see the resolution of the Security Council implemented without fail.”

“The Attack…Opportunity”

For his part, the retired Brigadier General Youssef Al-Jadam believes that Hezbollah, according to the latest speech by its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, says to Israel regarding the possibility of a ground attack : “You are welcome…a. A ground attack will be a historic opportunity for us.”

In a telephone interview with the program, Al-Jadam suggested that the attack, if it really happened, would be limited “and on broken ground with no inhabitants,” questioning the “gain” that would be gained. ​Israel from any ground attack.

He confirmed this, “even if they could push Hezbollah 7 or 8 kilometers beyond the Litani. “

Al-Jadam gave an example of the missiles that Hezbollah said reached Tel Aviv, noting that Hezbollah’s missiles, which could cause great damage in Israel, are still limited in use, noting that the Lebanese group has yet to reveal its entire arsenal. missiles.

On Wednesday, Israeli Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy said that the airstrikes in Lebanon are preparing the way for possible ground operations by Israeli forces.

While talking about the possible ground attack of the Israeli army into southern Lebanon, Al-Jadam said “it will not be easy” for Israel, referring to Hezbollah’s response.

He said: “Hezbollah has placed fortresses and tunnels for defense,” stressing that even if Israel destroys everything above ground, “he does not know what Hezbollah has underground defense capabilities .”

Hezbollah’s arsenal is “unknown”

In this context, the military expert pointed out that Israel is afraid of the long-range and accurate missiles that Hezbollah has and that they have not yet used, he said.

Al-Jadam confirmed that Hezbollah’s arsenal is unknown, but added, “Everything in Iran could be in Hezbollah’s possession,” although its use is “restricted” by orders from Iran.

In addition, Al-Jadam stressed that the diplomatic solution could bring relief to both Israel and Hezbollah, but he explained that “there is no permanent solution to the conflict as long as there is a regular armed force the Lebanon outside the authority of the state, which is a threat to Israel, especially with their expansion and orders It comes from foreign countries,” he said, referring to Iran.

Hezbollah said in a statement that it had launched a missile aimed at an area near Tel Aviv, and revealed that the ballistic missile was of the “Qader 1” type and that it had targeted a given to the Mossad command headquarters on the outskirts of Tel Aviv, “that is the headquarters responsible for assassinating leaders and blowing up pagers and radios,” according to what Hezbollah said in a statement. Sirens sounded at dawn in Tel Aviv.

For its part, the Israeli army said that air defense systems intercepted the missile after it was detected, adding that it was heading towards civilian areas, and that the Mossad headquarters were not located in the that area.

He said about 40 shells were fired from Lebanon into northern Israel, many of which were intercepted.

In addition, the Israeli army said that its aircraft carried out large-scale attacks in southern and eastern Lebanon, which included, according to it, 60 targets for Hezbollah’s intelligence services, indicating that it specifically destroyed intelligence gathering machines, command centers and other infrastructure. “used by the enemy,” he said.

The Israeli army also targeted around 280 Hezbollah targets on Wednesday, and its planes attacked towns in southern Lebanon and Baalbek in the east of the country, according to Lebanon’s official National News Agency, causing dozens of casualties. of deaths and injuries.

The bombing included the mountainous town of Al-Muaisra, north of Beirut, which is about 220 km from the border.

It is considered to be the deepest Israeli target on Lebanese territory since the start of the conflict with Hezbollah.

American efforts

In the midst of this, the statement of the Israeli army said that the commander of the Northern Command said that Israel had entered a new phase of its campaign, and he said that Israel must be ready to move and move.

The Israeli army called up two additional brigades of reserve forces to continue fighting efforts against Hezbollah and allow residents of the north to return to their homes, according to an Israeli army statement.

At the same time, the Mini Security Council is meeting in Tel Aviv ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveling to New York to participate in the work of the United Nations General Assembly.

In the midst of the acceleration of these events, Blinken said, on Wednesday, at the beginning of a meeting with senior officials and ministers from the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council in New York: “As for Lebanon, we are working hard with com- partners to avoid an all-out war and move to a diplomatic process that allows both Israelis and Lebanese to return to… “Their homes.”