Does the death of Putin solve the war? It is possible, but we don’t know, says researcher Valdis Kuzmins. Will Russia finally be hit hard by the impact of sanctions, will the West finally really want a decisive victory for Ukraine, can Ukrainians lose their motivation to go to war or, on the contrary, will they be able to provide themselves with the necessary weapons? These are circumstances, each of which can significantly change the course of the war. Just as each of the possible war scenarios may come to pass, each of them may not. However, such forecasts and their development scenarios are a self-evident and necessary part of military analytics, notes Mārtiņš Vērdiņš, who once also studied it in the USA.
We offer expert comments on the seven most frequently heard scenarios of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – the conditions that can lead to them and the possible consequences.
