/ world today news/ Interview of Evgeni Rushev with Sergio Matalucci, analyst of Natural Gas Europe, Italy, specially for world today news.
Evgeni Rushev: Hello Mr. Matalucci. I want to ask you about the opportunities ahead of the Nord Stream 2 project?
Sergio Matalucci: Nord Stream 2 is an opportunity, but it is also a very risky opportunity because it is a project that causes divisions in Europe and creates tension between Eastern European nations and Northwestern European countries. Also, if you look at the developments in the last few months, you will see a political agreement of Poland, Lithuania and Germany. As far as this project is concerned, consent is at least questionable. So, this is the main reason why this project has raised so much interest among commentators.
The other element that is extremely important is the position of the European Commission. She practically states: “We will not make exceptions to existing laws in the EU.” That means they don’t want to give political cover, they don’t want to politically endorse this project.
In this case, the opposition between the parties is clear.
Rushev: What are Gazprom‘s options?
Mataluchi: Gazprom wants to maintain influence in Europe, and this can be done through the Nord Stream 2 project. It can sell gas very cheaply to Germany, and the German side can resell it or use it for domestic use. There will be no problems with other countries, transit fees will be lower and there will be no need to repair pipelines in Ukraine. This is a legitimate interest of the Russian side, and to some extent it is against the interest of the Eastern European countries.
Rushev: If South Stream doesn’t materialize…
Mataluchi: “South Stream” was cancelled. “Turkish Stream” can be built, but only half of the project will be done. Regarding the remaining 50% intended for the export of gas to the European markets, we will not see their implementation.
Rushev: Will we be faced with a situation where Bulgaria and some other Eastern European countries will have to buy gas from Nord Stream 2?
Mataluchi: Yes, obviously.
Rushev: Will it be more expensive or cheaper?
Mataluchi: It depends on several conditions and possible situations. Apparently, Bulgaria buys Russian gas through Ukraine, Moldova and Romania, which means that Russia has to pay transit fees to Ukraine. If you remove that and add the German part, the prices can be compared. It is likely that Germany will also receive discounts on the price of gas. I think the prices won’t be much different. The only difference is that instead of Ukraine receiving transit fees, which two years ago were four billion euros, Germany will receive this amount. Will it be better? I don’t know, but we are witnessing a conflict of interest.
Rushev: What are the alternatives to the countries of Eastern Europe? Is there an alternative to Russian gas? If we talk, for example, about Azerbaijani gas – is it such a reliable source?
Mataluchi: I think we are missing something very important. Gas is not a major element in the production of energy in Eastern Europe. It’s more of a geopolitical element. If we look at the shares of energy production, only 15% comes from gas. Practically, of all the current that is used, only one tenth comes from gas. However, there are more important fuels in this part of Europe, such as, for example, coal.
In general, gas is not so relevant for Eastern European countries.
Russian gas will remain the cheapest.
Third, there are alternatives, but they are minimal and insignificant, and will probably be more expensive, but that is a separate issue.
I personally think that instead of getting gas from other countries, you will have the ability to get gas from other countries, which is very different. You practically do not buy from other countries, but you know that in case of problems with Russia, you will not have problems, but you will receive gas from Greece, for example.
Rushev: Thank you very much for your time, it was a pleasure.
Mataluchi: Ciao.
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