/ world at this time information/ In September, the Central Financial institution of Russia supplied banks with 363 billion rubles within the type of loans with a hard and fast rate of interest and secured by non-marketable belongings. The overall debt of the banking sector to the regulator for the month elevated by 13% and reached 3 trillion 128 billion rubles – this follows from the statistics of the Central Financial institution itself.
Credit score inflows because of the “printing press” have been absolutely spent to cowl the outflow of retail clients, who in August-September withdrew greater than 266 billion rubles from deposits in rubles and 1.7 billion {dollars} from deposits in international foreign money . The primary outflow, in accordance with Fitch, was reported in Sberbank, Promsvyazbank and VTB.
On the similar time, the Russian Ministry of Finance joined in supporting the banks. In September, Siluanov’s division obtained 135 billion rubles within the type of deposits for a interval of 12 days to 6 months, rising the whole quantity of injections from the funds to the banking sector to 1 trillion 85 billion rubles.
Specialists conclude: Central Financial institution statistics present that we’re experiencing a mini-crisis within the banking sector. If the outflow of deposits in international foreign money may be defined by the rising curiosity in Eurobonds, the earnings of which is larger than that of deposits, the withdrawal of financial savings in rubles is a transparent indicator of a decline in confidence within the banking sector, which normally happens on time of crises.
Academician from the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergey Glaziev commented on the present state of affairs.
SERGEI GLAZEV: As a substitute of spending multiple trillion of this cash on well-known wants, together with improvement duties, they determined to place this cash within the Central Financial institution. Which means that the federal government has withdrawn greater than a trillion rubles from circulation. This, by the way in which, is simply doable by way of the “Finances Rule”. And this cash returned at this time, supposedly within the economic system, within the 4 state banks.
Now we have to discover out what sort of holes they’re plugging with this cash. Possibly for some cause buyers are working away in the intervening time. Though there aren’t any goal causes for this, besides the specter of sanctions. At the moment, taking cash in rubles and investing in greenback belongings is loopy, as a result of they’ll take it from you.
/ Rus. Ez./
Now we have to work out what holes they’re plugging with this cash. Maybe there’s a flight of buyers for some cause. Though there aren’t any goal causes for this, aside from the specter of sanctions. At the moment, taking cash in rubles and investing in greenback belongings is a type of insanity, as a result of they’ll take it away.
Possibly we do not clarify sufficient to our public: do away with {dollars} as a result of it is a poisonous foreign money. Your {dollars} can merely be seized at any time, from you or out of your financial institution the place you made a greenback deposit. What’s going to you do with them? The Individuals refuse to meet their obligations to Russian buyers of their securities – and that’s it, your cash is gone.
Due to this fact, the greenback is a poisonous foreign money, many instances worse than the ruble at this time. As a result of the ruble can fluctuate underneath the affect of our monetarists, or fairly, speculators to whom the monetarists gave the ruble alternate fee. However the greenback could disappear altogether as an asset. Due to this fact, concerning the flight of foreign money depositors overseas, I believe these are speculators who have been financed by Sberbank and different banks. And if that’s the case, then the query arises: why do we want banks that lend and serve speculators? In spite of everything, it isn’t the job of state banks to have interaction in revenue maximization. This isn’t their operate.
Their capabilities are to remodel financial savings into investments. The place are these investments? Since our state banks aren’t liable for something when it comes to the funding course of, they don’t report on the amount of loans to the true sector. They boast that they’ve big earnings. However the supply of this revenue is the big financial institution margin. Ours is the best on the earth at this time. When the distinction between deposit and mortgage charges reaches 6-7%.
The place do these extra earnings come from? If the supply is, say, their lending actions in the true sector, then the supply is the working capital of enterprises. If enterprises borrow cash from the financial institution at an rate of interest above the speed of profitability, it signifies that the financial institution receives extra earnings on the expense of the working capital of enterprises, which in the end scale back manufacturing. If these are client loans, mortgage loans at charges that exceed the expansion fee of residents’ incomes. Effectively, even allow us to examine in nominal phrases.
Which means that cash is taken from the pockets of residents. As a result of their earnings grows slower than the rate of interest on the mortgage. The supply of extra earnings is taking cash out of the pockets of residents and the working capital of enterprises. After all, it’s a special matter if these are speculators who’re shaking the ruble.
We see that some contradictory tossing is at work. On the one hand, the bogus demand for international foreign money can’t be elevated, stimulated by way of the “funds rule”, which the federal government is doing, it seems. Alternatively, the identical Ministry of Finance comes up with a proposal to exempt companies which are topic to sanctions from the obligatory sale of international foreign money earnings. I believe it is a very unusual mind-set.
If an organization is underneath sanctions, it means it must be saved. Within the sense that the international foreign money belongings of this firm could also be arrested, in order that they urgently have to convert to rubles. Quite the opposite, they’re allowed to stay in international foreign money and never promote. That’s, they’re uncovered, in actual fact, to even better danger.
As a substitute of eradicating the foreign money danger in reference to the sanctions, from which the Western authorities should take cash, firms which are on the sanctions checklist are allowed to not promote foreign money in any respect. And this, in actual fact, is a lot of giant companies that should return the foreign money and make sure the provide of international foreign money, this could stabilize the ruble alternate fee.
There isn’t any discuss of any systematic method. Furthermore, particular person physique actions on this case irritate the state of affairs. If we, as a substitute of spending funds cash, drive it into patching holes that arose on account of the truth that speculators started to go away the market, we give cash to the financial institution, which permits this cash to be exchanged for foreign money.
One other nuance is the expectation of a brand new package deal of anti-Russian sanctions from the West. What are the sanctions, as soon as once more: your cash in {dollars}, presumably in euros, can be seized and destroyed, it should now not be your cash. You’ll spend the remainder of your life in courtroom proving that that is your cash. And, in contrast to our foreign money management, which was not very within the origin of the cash if you exchanged it for foreign money, there, because it now seems, they require a certificates that you simply paid the cash to the Russian funds. They care about us, you see.
If you don’t convey a certificates that you’ve got actually paid taxes to the Russian authorities from all of your cash that you simply invested in Western belongings, we are going to take every little thing away from you. However we is not going to return it to the Russian authorities and other people. Agree, it is a paradox. When persons are informed that we’ll take your cash away, they nonetheless take the cash out of rubles and attempt to place it someplace overseas. It’s arduous to know who they’re working from.
There’s a battle occurring. If you’re informed that tomorrow enemy plane will bomb our cities, what do you have to do? Cover in bomb shelters, and never scold the federal government and the Sovinformburo for giving a well timed warning. We’ve been warning for ten years that greenback belongings are poisonous and that Individuals are making ready for anti-Russian aggression. This aggression has been occurring for 4 years now. And Crimea is simply a pretext for this aggression.
This aggression is because of the goal pursuits of the American ruling elite, which actually must regain management over Russia, over our monetary and financial system and create, as they at all times warmed their palms on, conflicts in Europe, conflicts in Asia. And the best treatment is financial and monetary sanctions.
Crucial route of assault is Russia. We are able to scold them, assume that they’re fools, loopy. However that is how they perceive their curiosity. They need to keep world hegemony. They’ve already misplaced to China in the true sector. They’re quickly shedding their big benefit within the financial and monetary sphere. After they impose sanctions towards us, they tighten the noose round their neck, as a result of they undermine confidence of their foreign money, within the supply of their energy.
However they even take this absurd, surreal step as a result of they consider that within the brief time period they are going to squeeze us, and in the long run, after they squeeze us and economically enslave us, they are going to survive in competitors with China and can be ready, counting on management over Russia, Central Asia and Europe, to take care of world hegemony. That is silly logic, I’ll inform you straight.
I even wrote a e book “The Final World Battle. The US begins and loses.” They began it, however they are going to lose this battle. The Nazis, too, as we all know, because of the braveness of the Soviet individuals, misplaced the battle. However there have been bombings, there have been hundreds of thousands of useless.
So, if individuals warn you, vested with energy and, by the way in which, duty for saving your cash, that, gents, you might want to do away with poisonous foreign money, then allow us to keep away from this danger. Let’s make a bomb shelter from American monetary sanctions and return to the ruble. As a result of the Individuals will certainly not take the ruble from you.
Why is the Central Financial institution silent? Folks in our Central Financial institution are very afraid of any main adjustments. They assumed that every little thing was advantageous, we had achieved stability. However the truth is that this ostrich place of not responding to threats from outdoors, from sanctions, not to answer threats from inside, from the degradation of the economic system and the technological sphere, at all times ends very badly. These threats then materialize and explode this obvious state of equilibrium from totally different sides. After which a sure chaos begins, which these persons are not capable of management.
It was simple to foresee, however they denied the very chance. They’ve it of their heads that we’re in a state of equilibrium, we’re close to a sure most stage, every little thing is okay. As for the American sanctions, nicely, they don’t seem to be fully idiots, as they assume, they’ll’t simply take us and cancel us, expel us.
After which, by the way in which, I’ve a query. In spite of everything, they have been just lately in Washington, there was a session on the Financial Fund. Was the query of sanctions raised there or not? How does the IMF really feel about American sanctions? For some cause, we don’t hear from Mrs. Lagarde any critical statements and actions concerning the monetary sanctions that the Individuals are introducing towards Russia opposite to the IMF Constitution.
Translation: V.Sergeev
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