The massacre organized by the Russian occupying army in Bakhmut and Soledar is increasingly reminiscent of Verdun during the First World War. Waves of infantry mowed down by Ukrainian machine gunners and artillerymen, mountains of corpses in areas of several hundred square meters … The world went around the photo with forty bodies of Russian soldiers lying where there had recently been a forest plantation. Lord, it’s good that the temperature is below zero: can you imagine how it would all smell in the summer?
Madness, pure madness… And the classic zugzwang for the occupiers – every move only worsens their situation.
Previously, the invaders cut their way into the ultra-resistant Ukrainian defenses with a terrible “barrage”: this is when artillery focuses its fire on enemy positions, gradually increasing the distance of destruction, and equipment and infantry follow the gaps, occupying scorched earth. This is how the Red Army acted in 1944-45, and this is how its successor, the army of Nazi Russia, got used to working without bothering.
But the modern Russian Federation is not the USSR, and its possibilities in terms of creating hell on earth are not so unlimited. Therefore, since the end of autumn, the fire shaft has been used only sporadically. The lack of shells affects – no, in general, the enemy will have enough shells for a long time, but with each new attempt to break through, another warehouse is emptied, and new ammunition has to be transported from afar. Strongly from afar – almost from the Far East. If they had planned operations consistently and systematically, the problem would not have been so acute, but, fortunately, Putin’s people are not consistent and systemic. “To put the squeeze on” the Ukrainian Donbass, to reach the administrative borders of the two regions has become an idefix for them, and also a factor in the hardware game. As a result – the rapid depletion of potential.
To conduct an offensive with a barrage without pauses, continuous or at least rhythmic deliveries of ammunition are needed, which is almost impossible to achieve in the conditions of a constantly lengthening logistical arm.
Let me explain easier. To maintain a density of fire acceptable to the advancing Russian army, it is necessary to bring about 50,000 shells to the front every day. In warehouses located 200 km from the front line, this good is no longer there, everything has been raked out. In the 500s, there is a million, but the rail network allows you to ship no more than 10 thousand pieces every day. In 1000 km – ten million units, but there the throughput of the transport system is such that you can send at most five thousand in 24 hours. And the further the storage point is located, the more difficult the transportation conditions. The result is that if in the summer the invaders could spend up to 80 thousand shells per day, and this allowed them to gnaw out (that’s right!) the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk agglomeration, now they are throwing out 10-15 thousand at the most.
Artillery, of course, remains the main factor in this war. But the Ukrainian one is more accurate and long-range – yes, one shell for twenty enemy ones, but this shell is guaranteed to hit the target, destroying it. The enemy often puts his iron in “milk”. But let’s not indulge in hatred: our defenders are also dying there, and the losses are very, very high.
The incomprehensible offensive of Putin’s army continues, but its pace is at best a few meters per day.
Question: for what? So that Prigozhin, whose “Wagnerites” are now fertilizing Ukrainian soil in the Bakhmut region by the hundreds, once again consolidated his position on the Russian political Olympus? Or, conversely, sorry, crap?
Soledar, in which, despite numerous reports of victorious Russians, Ukrainian troops are still holding the line, is important as one of the keys to Bakhmut. The strategic importance of the latter – by the way, it was once a very pleasant town, “the most Nenetsk of Donetsk”, as the locals called it – is due to the fact that it is a relatively large transport hub. Capturing it will enable the Russians to develop an offensive against Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which are located to the northwest. As a bonus, the Defense Forces will be forced to transfer troops to close the gap, and thereby either slow down or even cancel the operation to liberate Svatov and Rubizhne in the Luhansk region.
That is, there is some military meaning in the actions of Putinists. Okay, but what’s next? In order to continue active hostilities and develop success (which is not yet available), we need all the same tens of thousands of shells per day, and also the second echelon, which the enemy does not have (units of the 2nd motorized rifle division of the 1st tank army, which are transferred from Belarus , are clearly not drawn to such: there, according to the brilliant military analyst from Odessa Alexander Kovalenko, there is a serious lack of equipment, in fact, these are the classic “march battalions” of the first half of the 20th century).
Well, the Ukrainians will be kicked out of Soledar, what will follow? Protracted and bloody battles in Bakhmut, by the end of which another thousand or two invaders will become “good”. The result will be a new and, most likely, final positional impasse.
Actually, everything goes to the last one. What is happening is very reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988. An invasion, stubborn defensive battles, a counteroffensive by the defenders, a pause, a new offensive by the aggressor, a new counteroffensive, and long years of sitting in the trenches. “War of the cities”. A war of attrition… Millions of dead, millions of ruined destinies, several lost generations.
However, there is a difference. The confrontation between Iran and Iraq was still a fight between sides that were relatively equal in strength. Our case is different. A huge empire tried to bring a relatively weak democratic republic to its knees and miscalculated.
Moreover, she miscalculated in everything – tank breakthroughs turned into the worst defeat of armored vehicles since the Second World War, the population of Ukraine got rid of the last illusions about the “fraternal people”, and missile and drone strikes on cities and infrastructure, although they caused some damage, but obviously not critical. And new attacks are unlikely to radically change the situation.
The occupying forces are rapidly losing the remnants of their offensive potential without any significant result. Russia can no longer win this war. And “non-victory” for an authoritarian, almost totalitarian, state means its defeat and collapse. Yes, the agony will last for some time – probably quite a long time, maybe more than a year. But the inglorious end of Putin’s state is still inevitable.
Ukraine will definitely win!
Author — Viktor Bosnyak
DEATH TO THE RUSSIAN OCCUPANTS!
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