Nobody imagined observing the historical image that was captured on October 20, 2023, when the children of the two presidents of the Democratic Spring They would be shaking hands, seven decades after their parents ruled Guatemala.
The image of Bernardo Arévalo and Jacobo Árbenz Vilanova will remain for posterity and will mark a key point in national history, with an event that no one had expected in this year’s general elections, when the Semilla Movement triumphed in the race for the presidency.
Neither the opposition nor the supporters expected that the duo of Bernardo Arévalo and Karin Herrera would be winners among 23 political groups, many of which were in cahoots to continue with a style of government, united in such a way that some of them had to continue. the corruption process marked by the last presidents.
Phenomena like this are often called a “Black Swan”, and although it is not usually a scientific theory as such, it is a probabilistic theory that, according to Wikipedia, is explained as follows:
“…is a metaphor that describes a surprising event, of great socioeconomic impact and that, once the event has passed, is rationalized by retrospection (making it seem predictable or explainable, and giving the impression that it was expected to occur).”
The philosopher Nassim Taleb coined this term when he was a stock market broker, when observing how certain unusual phenomena happened from time to time, these being apparently inexplicable, unpredictable and surprising; generating a significant impact on society.
Examples of black swans in the global context include: the attacks on the Twin Towers in 2001, the global financial crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic beginning in 2020. None of these events were expected at the magnitude that they occurred, but They had a dramatic impact on markets and the global economy.
This phenomenon falls into the category of metaphor, because among swans it is very rare to see a black specimen, because generally these birds are usually white, hence the relationship with its name.
Returning to the case of the Semilla Movement, its category as Black Swan is the most recent that we can observe in our context, in fact its process to come to power is so unusual that it deserves a Best Seller or a series on Netflix.
And Guatemala is characterized by having several black swans, such as: the murder of Monsignor Gerardi, the Rosenberg case and the case of Cristina Siekavizza, which have impacted society due to their unpredictable characteristics, with such dark plots and such dystopian characters, characteristic of our country.
For the next government, the novelty generated by its victory can be capitalized in its favor, due to the reaction it has provoked in a society that is apparently apathetic and distracted from what is happening in the country, but that took advantage of the opportune moment to generate collective change. .
The future of existence is full of surprises, some bad and some good, it depends on which side is experienced, the truth is that in moments of black swans is when history is marked and kept in the memory of new generations.
