Security in the Pacific – The confrontation with China

AUKUS, The Security Pact between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, announced in mid-September, marks the beginning of a new geopolitical game in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The purpose of the Security Pact is to stem Chinese influence and expansion. It is a clear message to China that the concept of the West, and their friends, is set to stand together – in the East.

China’s huge growth dramatically changes the political geography of Asia. With nothing but verbal opposition, US friends in Asia have had to contend that China has conquered reefs and islands in the South China Sea, and expanded them into military fortifications, even though countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam claim the same islands. and even though the International Court of Justice in The Hague has ruled China’s expansion illegal. Last year, China and India had a clash in which several border soldiers in both places were killed. China’s air force and navy regularly deliberately violate Taiwan’s territory, and Chinese leaders repeatedly suggest that the island may be invaded, emphasizing that it is part of China.

Biden took a Trump

And China is operating trade war with a boycott of goods against countries that do not dance to their tune, such as South Korea and Australia. When Australia demanded an investigation into how the corona virus first originated in China, China responded by stopping all imports of Australian food and wine, a major market for Australia.

Chinese aggression against neighboring countries has the character of systematic bullying. China seems to have a strategy of forcing its neighbors into cooperation where the goal is to create a Sino-centric world, where neighbors are linked to China as client states, and do as China says. The Middle Kingdom will surround itself with partners they can control, there is both a security policy logic in this, since the geographical starting point is Beijing, and since the perspective – where you observe the world from – is decisive for what you see. And there is an economic logic to this, since China will be the hub that the others spin around.

But despite the carrots in the gigantic and worldwide investment project, One Way, One Belt Project, which means large investments in the countries covered by it, China uses the whip even more diligently than the carrot. Many of America’s allies and friends in the area have been looking for an adult when they have been bullied by China. But the United States has so far seen a different path. With the security pact AUKUS, Joe Biden’s USA now sees China in white, and sends a clear signal of support to his friends in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

More desperate than ever

The agreement makes that Australia will have at least eight nuclear-powered submarines, with the very latest in technology, and access to enriched uranium, from which nuclear warheads can be made. In addition, AUKUS offers the latest technology in areas such as artificial intelligence and space defense. But the spirit of the new security pact offers more. This weekend, the leaders met in another new security structure in Washington DC. The structure is called Quad, and consists of the USA, Australia, India and Japan, and is also about standing together, and blocking China’s expansion. In addition to these two security structures, South Korea and the Philippines are US allies, and Vietnam – yes, Vietnam – is applying under the US security umbrella.

In his speech at the UN last week, Biden promised a restless and active diplomacy as a replacement for the US warriors. This means, among other things, that the USA will seek cooperation with China on, for example, the environment and disease control. But do not cooperate at any cost. On the contrary, the signal now is that continued Chinese expansion and bullying of neighbors will have its – precisely – price.

At least one bad day at work

What a price however, is unclear. The most extreme picture of what price a confrontation will have is the countries’ defense budgets. The United States is almost four times as high as China’s, in return China’s defense budget increases this year by 6.8 percent. The ambition is to build it up and modernize it by 2035, so that by 2050 it will be on a par with the United States. That is at least President Xi Jinping’s ambition.

There is more and more nationalist and chauvinistic China that the US-backed security structures in Asia will curb. Xi Jinping has in his time pursued an aggressive, confrontational and combative foreign policy. Now this diplomacy is facing a more organized resistance. The great geopolitical, seismic, movements of our time are happening around China.

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