QCP Capital specialists doubted the SEC’s willingness to approve an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF before the end of the year, which would leave digital gold at the mercy of macroeconomic factors. The latter talk about the risks of falling prices.
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QCP capital: We do not expect the SEC approval for any application or conversion to take place this year, which means the larger BTC trend below 25k or beyond 32k is beholden to macro winds for the rest of Q4.
QCP believed risks are firmly tilted to the downside from here for…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 18, 2023
Experts noted that it is the external background that is now determining for the price of the first cryptocurrency to go beyond the boundaries of the $25,000-32,000 corridor. risk curve.
According to QCP Capital, the market is currently in confusion. Will BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s forecast come true that digital gold will behave like a precious metal and become a magnet for capital amid their flight to “quality”? Or will Bitcoin prove itself as an asset with a high beta risk?
If the first scenario turns out to be correct, then it will mark the beginning of a large-scale and multi-month bull phase.
Analysts attributed the continued bearish sentiment to consensus expectations for a “seasonal” stock market rally in the fourth quarter. They associated their skepticism with the end of the key rate increase cycle.
Experts recommended waiting for a repeat of the dynamics of October-December 2008, 2018, or even 2000, and not 2007 and 2017, which is what most are now counting on.
Data: QCP Capital.
“We think the biggest trigger will be exponential growth real rates in the US when the consensus reaches an extreme again, expecting them to decline,” they explained.
Experts drew attention to statements by US President and Treasury Secretary Joe Biden and Janet Yellen about the “ability” to support wars in Israel and Ukraine. This will increase the burden on the budget and, other things being equal, will cause a further increase in yields on the government debt market.
Data: QCP Capital.
Analysts drew attention to the markets’ underestimation of the risks of increased escalation in the Middle East with possible US intervention. A direct signal to sell shares would be the direct participation of Iran in the conflict or, even worse, American troops, they added.
Experts provided a chart of the Nasdaq index, which shows a scenario of “a sharp exit of the stock index within the framework of a bearish terminal diagonal triangle,” which, in their opinion, will push Bitcoin out of its six-month consolidation.
Data: QCP Capital.
Previously, experts from QCP Capital gave four arguments in favor of the forecast with the price of the first cryptocurrency returning to $25,000.
Recall that Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicted SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023.
According to CryptoQuant analysts, if the product is registered, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market will soar by $1 trillion. They also predicted an increase in the price of digital gold to $50,000-73,000.
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2023-10-19 09:35:18
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