The Finnish parliament has undergone a dramatic shift as the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was pushed into third place in the election. This comes as Sanna Marin, the current prime minister, has conceded defeat to the Centre Party’s Petteri Orpo. The results suggest that the Finnish people are searching for a new direction, as both the Centre Party and the anti-immigration nationalist Finns Party made significant gains in the polls. The election marks a significant moment in Finnish politics and has left many wondering what the future holds for the country.
The world’s youngest prime minister, Sanna Marin of Finland, has lost her bid for re-election after her centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) was beaten into third place in a closely contested vote by the conservative and far-right opposition. The right-wing National Coalition Party (NCP) secured 20.8 per cent of the vote, with the populist Finns party scooping 20.1 per cent. Marin’s SDP took 19.9 per cent, with voter turnout clocking in at around 71.9 per cent. Marin, aged 37, congratulated the election winners, but highlighted an increase in her party’s vote share and its projected number of MPs.
The NCP’s leader, Petteri Orpo, spoke of a “big victory” and referred to it as a “strong mandate for our policies”. Meanwhile, the leader of the Finns party, Riikka Purra, lauded it as an “excellent result”. Orpo pledged his solidarity with Ukraine, whilst Marin successfully led Finland through the Covid pandemic and towards Nato membership. Despite her personal popularity, however, the opposition parties were able to estimate that excessive government borrowing and above-inflation public spending, as well as her refusal to slash welfare budgets, would be a ticking time bomb in the long run.
Marin was born into a “very poor” household, and took up a job at a department store before benefiting from Finland’s free education system to obtain a master’s degree in administrative studies. She became the country’s leader in 2019 and made headlines for her active social life, although critics raised concerns over what they felt to be inappropriate behavior, after photos and footage of her partying with friends were circulated. Despite this, Marin’s personal popularity remained high, given the impact she had as a leader in response to the Covid crisis, although the recessionary landscape and rising inflation likely contributed to her loss.
The NCP secured 48 seats in the 200-seat Finnish parliament, up from 38 previously. The Finns party gained seven additional MPs for a total of 46, while the SDP improved by three seats to reach 43. Orpo promised to make cuts to unemployment benefits and housing policies, whilst Purra pledged to cut non-EU immigration and simultaneously focus on climate change, energy, and crime prevention.
Given the system of parliamentary democracy in Finland, the largest party in the assembly is typically invited to form a government, which spells the end of Marin’s four-year term as prime minister. The NCP is expected to explore the option of a right-leaning “blue-black” coalition, collaborating with the Finns party and several smaller parties. Though if Orpo decides to forge a cross-spectrum alliance with the SDP and its allies, this could possibly result in the most likely outcome, despite the glaring differences in policy.
However, the SDP and two of its current coalition partners, the Greens and the Left Alliance, have declined any notion of working with the far-right Finns party, which was previously accused of openly racist campaign tactics. The other two smaller parties, the Centre Party and the Swedish People’s Party, are described as swing parties and are expected to lend their support either to the centre-right or the centre-left, depending on the outcome of the discussions.
