/ world today news/ Russian forces will take control of Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv, said Scott Ritter, a former US military intelligence officer, in an interview with the YouTube channel The Geopolitics In Conflict Show.
“Vladimir Putin suggested to us. After securing Russian territory, he said, the Russians would repel Ukrainian armed forces at a distance equal to the maximum range of NATO-provided weapons systems such as HIMARS, which have a range of about 150 km. This means that Russia will liberate Odessa, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk,” he said.
According to Ritter, once the Russian military takes control of these cities, they will not allow the armed forces to reoccupy them.
Ritter also believes that Western leaders will force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate with Moscow to keep what would then be under the rule of the Kiev regime.
It is worth recalling that Ritter is a person who constantly makes statements about Ukraine. Who is he? Who does it work for?
„For whom Ritter works, we will hardly find out,” says Vladimir Lepekhin, director of the EAIS (Eurasian Economic Union) Institute.
– But one pattern is known – when former US intelligence officers, especially FORMER intelligence officers, after retirement, start saying sensible things – it’s what they think. Perhaps in this case we have exactly this phenomenon.
“SP”: Well, Odessa and Kharkiv are understandable, but why Dnipropetrovsk? Is he a priority?
– Dnipropetrovsk is assumed, since it will be impossible to draw a demarcation line along the Dnieper without taking Dnipropetrovsk (the old city and its center are on the right bank). But that’s more wishful thinking on Ritter’s part than a reasonable prediction.
“SP”: According to Ritter, the Russians will repel the armed forces at a distance equal to the maximum range of weapons systems provided by NATO, such as HIMARS, which have a range of about 150 km. What’s the point? The Americans will deliver something more far-reaching…
– This statement of Ritter also comes from wishful thinking. It is based on the real plans of the Russian Ministry of Defense, but today no one can say whether Russia has enough resources for this.
And so far, there is no indication that the Russian military is ready to launch a counterattack on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At least this year.
“SP”: Ritter believes that the leaders of the Western countries will force Zelensky to negotiate with Moscow in order to preserve what will be under the rule of the Kiev regime at the time. How realistic is that?
– Well, if Ritter thinks so, let him name the names. Judging by how the NATO summit in Vilnius went, the leaders of the countries of Europe and the United States follow Stoltenberg’s words: “Our goal is the victory of Ukraine.”
“SP”: If the West really wants negotiations, then at what point will it start them? How much depends on the percentage of territories that Moscow will control?
– It is not about what percentage of the territory of Ukraine Moscow controls. The question is whether to attack or defend. As long as she is on the defensive, no one will enter into negotiations with her.
But as soon as Russia goes on the offensive and achieves some success, that’s where the West will demand negotiations.
„Here it should be clarified that until 2014, the majority of residents of Dnipropetrovsk region were no less active in the development of cooperation between Ukraine and Russia than residents of Odessa and Kharkiv,” said Pavel Ekaterinin, deputy head of the Center for the Study of Civil and Military Conflicts (CIGiVK).
– This is proven by the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections of those years. The people of Dnipropetrovsk have always preferred pro-Russian candidates who want to develop their country together with Russia instead of going to the EU.
Of course, under the influence of propaganda, the majority of residents of this region are now in favor of the European future of Ukraine, but we cannot forget about the people who openly opposed the Maidan in the spring of 2014 and took to the streets of Dnipropetrovsk with Russian flags . They are still waiting for us.
If we talk about strategic importance, then Dnipropetrovsk is a very important city. After reaching it, Russian troops can for a long time entrench themselves along the Dnieper River and create an ideal springboard for a future offensive on the right bank of the region.
“SP”: Ritter believes that it is enough for Russia to move Ukraine within one shot. Is it serious? So what about the buffer zone?
– I do not think that the creation of a buffer zone between the troops of the Russian Federation and Ukraine will protect our country from enemy shelling.
In addition, the Western weapons that will be delivered to Kiev further are able to strike deep into Russia even from the territory of Western Ukraine.
Here we can recall the recent speech of Denis Pushilin. According to him, only the complete liberation of the territory of Ukraine from the Nazis can fully secure the Russian Federation.
Even if we leave them, for example, Lviv and Ternopil, after a few years they can again fight on our land at the will of the West. We need the demilitarization and denazification of all of Ukraine, as stated in the President’s speech on February 24, 2022.
“SP”: According to Ritter, the West can negotiate. In which case?
– I think that the tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers who died as a result of the “counterattack” will still force the West to seriously think about negotiations with the Russian side. Another question is whether we need to negotiate with terrorists?
Even if Zelensky and his gang are forced to offer Moscow their own version of the negotiations, I am sure that we will not accept their terms.
The complete liberation of Russia (including Kherson and Zaporozhye) from the armed forces of Ukraine, as well as the demilitarization of Ukraine – only such conditions for peace negotiations can we accept.
The West’s decision to start peace talks in the Russian Federation will probably be provoked not so much by Russia’s success on the front as by another failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Too much was bet on his success, which did not happen.
“SP”: Which other cities, in your opinion, could be important for Russia from the point of view of the obligation to liberate them?
– Of course, it is Nikolaev who opens the way to Odessa for us. Cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea will be an important achievement for the Russian Armed Forces. But as I said earlier, only the complete liberation of Ukraine from the Nazis can ensure Russia.
„The expert’s predictions stroke the pride of the Russian public, but they almost never come true,” says political scientist Andrey Miliuk.
— You need to stop lulling yourself to sleep with charming pictures of future victories and look at the current difficulties of SVO.
Mr. Ritter may at least promise the conquest of Mars on the personal orders of Vladimir Putin, but the reality is that Russian troops are fighting heavy defensive battles for the second month.
And although the Ukrainian offensive is developing much worse than most analysts predicted, the prerequisites for a large-scale counteroffensive of our troops are not foreseen.
There are several reasons for this. First, the Russian authorities have been very slow in transitioning the economy to a military base and are generally reluctant to move to all-out military action.
Therefore, at the front there is still a shortage not only of ammunition and military equipment, but even of the simplest devices for combat operations.
Second, the scale of operations desired by Mr. Ritter requires several more waves of mobilization. The authorities intend to avoid this until the last moment, so as not to anger the population of the country and involve them so much in the conduct of the war that the masses themselves become the object of politics.
Third, it gives the impression that we are playing out some analogue of the positional stalemate of the First World War.
The general weakness of the opposing sides, the inability to organize effective command and control of the troops, the lack of responsibility of the command of the units for the mistakes – all this generally creates conditions in which the advancing units suffer unjustifiably large losses while achieving very modest results.
In general, there are political prerequisites for establishing a new demarcation line along the Dnieper, to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea.
After all, even for the division of the Ukrainian state and the formation in its place of a non-functioning chicken coop, on which all debts and responsibility for everything that happened will then be written off.
Such prerequisites exist, regardless of the will of Vladimir Putin and the range of missiles delivered to Ukraine. But in order to realize such prerequisites, the Russian state must work a lot on itself. This is what Mr. Ritter should be talking about, not feeding the Russian public with feel-good stories.
Translation: SM
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