Scotland against everyone after the Brexit tear. But independence is an obstacle course

LONDON – Will the rebellious spirit of Braveheart win this time? Of course, Brexit has won: yesterday the United Kingdom irreversibly abandoned the European Union after 47 years of joys, pains and torments. But Nicola Sturgeon, independence captain beyond Hadrian’s Wall, does not give up. And, after the interview with Repubblica two weeks ago, the Scottish premier reiterates her battle in a tweet with a little heart between the words “Scotland” and “Europe”: “We will be back in the EU soon! Don’t turn off the light. Wait for us! “, thus increasing the already strong pressure on London for a new referendum on independence from the United Kingdom, after that of 2014 won by the unionists (55%):” Scotland – adds Sturgeon – has never voted for Brexit (62 % opposed it in 2016, ed). Because we feel European. As an independent, Scotland will be a member of the EU “.

Will the dream of Sturgeon and the Scottish separatists come true? Will the descendants of Braveheart really shatter the UK three centuries after the “Acts of Union” of 1707? For many commentators and media like the Guardian, a second referendum for Edinburgh independence is inevitable, for various reasons.

The polls give the separatists 16 points ahead, an all-time record. The potential damage of Brexit, which sparked the anti-London revolt, could incite the latter more and more (economically Scotland is very tied to the EU) and fishermen from the North have already been betrayed by the agreement. Not only. The party of Sturgeon Snp could spread to the local elections next May, according to the polls it broke 50% and so the independence fury would be overwhelming. And then the original sin of the referendum seven years ago. True, Scotland said “no” to independence, but then many pro-Europeans voted to stay in the UK because the UK was full in Europe: leaving it would have meant for Edinburgh to abandon both London and Brussels, as the British would veto the admission to the EU of an independent Scotland. Two years later, however, Brexit turned everything upside down.

Nonetheless, a brutal rip of Scotland from London is more complicated than it appears. First: Johnson will never give decisive consent for a second referendum on Edinburgh independence, because it would be the first chasm of a domino that would split the United Kingdom, with Northern Ireland in the wake already half sacrificed to the EU in the agreement. Brexit in the name of peace.

Second: even if Johnson falls, Sir’s Labor alternative Keir Starmer he dumped the Scottish separatists, to stem them he has already enlisted former premier Gordon Brown (born outside Glasgow) and at most he will grant more devolution like Tony Blair in ’97.

Third: Sturgeon has always excluded a “Catalan way”, ie disobedience and unconstitutional referendum, because “I want an internationally recognized independent Scotland”. In the recent interview with Republic, the premier revealed that she could turn to the British Supreme Court. But it is a difficult road, which among other things could solemnly brand its claims as “illegal”.

But there are other big caveats. Brexit ended with a zero-duty free trade agreement between the EU and the UK, which does not equal the advantages of the single market, but is certainly much better than a No Deal, the exit without an agreement which, with its serious consequences for economics, he would have blessed Sturgeon’s narrative: How many separatists are now willing to embark on more long years of instability and uncertainty after a near-“happy ending” Brexit?

Moreover, even if the achievement of independence happens, entry into the European Union is not at all obvious: Edinburgh should adopt the euro while Sturgeon wants to keep the pound. But above all Spain could veto independent Scotland in Europe, in order not to set a dangerous precedent, given the trouble it has at home with the Catalan secessionists. Despite the public nods of the EU in Edinburgh, the risk for Scotland is to find itself truly alone.

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