You could say it already is. The drought has been raging for several weeks or even several months and we are not at the first blow of the torch of the season. It’s a very sad fact when you know that it’s only the beginning of July. Indeed, a powerful anticyclone is currently setting up over the near Atlantic, protecting us from any degradation. These high pressures will be accompanied by increasingly hot air, not to say scorching. Under these conditions, the dry and hot weather that we already have will increase and strengthen.
Being positioned on the eastern flank of the anticyclone, we are in a northerly flow thus favoring a long windy period with the presence of the mistral and the tramontana which will contribute to drying out the ground. The wind is expected to be weaker, especially in the Hérault, which will allow a sharper rise in temperatures in this department. We repeat, the risk of fire is maximum in the coming days, we ask you for the greatest caution.
Carte : Tropicaltidbits
Be careful with the analysis of the map above. Blue does not correspond to cold and red to heat. This is the geopotential anomaly. To put it simply, the areas in blue represent low pressure (at altitude) and in red high pressure. The situation is typical of heat waves in our region and part of France in general. We have a small cold drop that will slide off Portugal. This will drain boiling air from North Africa and Spain to France. At the same time, the high pressures are well established over England and block this air which rises from the South.
This is a situation that could favor the formation of a heat dome over our country with scorching temperatures blocked over France and in particular its southern and western half. The high temperatures are already in place but the thermometer will climb in the coming days. The wind will limit this increase (very relatively) but the maximum could exceed 36-38°C in the shade on the Hérault less exposed to the wind. We should then be above the heat wave thresholds for the Hérault for this weekend.
Maps: Weathersky
Unlike June, these temperatures will occur in a perfectly clear sky, helped by the mistral and the tramontane. No instability is in sight. This scorching weekend could be just a taste of what awaits us next week. Indeed, the situation will remain frozen with scorching air which will continue to rise from the South. The wind could change direction with the consequence of pushing the strongest heat in the hinterland. In view of the deadline, it is still difficult to announce precise values but there is no doubt that we should be between 35 and 40°C (in the shade, we remind you).
Some scenarios even model the 40°C bar by several degrees, but this still needs to be refined. What seems certain is that we are entering a long scorching period with absolutely no rain or even any clouds in sight. Even by pushing back the deadline as much as possible, the weather remains dry and abnormally hot as far as the eye can see. If we follow the logic of the seasonal patterns, they don’t see a break in this heat throughout the summer. When we talk about a break, we are talking about normally warm temperatures, around seasonal averages.
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