/View.info/ The Institute for Research on Emerging Markets “Skolkovo” (IEMS) in cooperation with NORD University Business School from Norway with the support of senior Arctic officials on November 2 held a discussion Arctic 2050: Mapping the future of the Arctic1 for mapping the future of the Arctic at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland. In 2021-2023, the Russian Federation chairs the Arctic Council, the central forum for international cooperation in the region. Having recently celebrated 25 years of its existence, the Arctic Council continues to be an effective platform for interaction between Arctic states and the indigenous peoples of the North, as well as experts and scientists from its working groups, observer states and organizations2.
The Arctic is a beautiful region still untouched by human hands, but climate change is having a major impact on the Arctic. We are witnessing the constant melting of Arctic ice as a result of rising temperatures caused by climate change. In the Arctic, climate change is a reality, bringing both challenges and opportunities for its inhabitants. Scientists from Russia, Norway, Iceland and other Arctic countries, the EU, the USA, China and Canada, despite the difficulties and worsening relations between Russia and the West, are actively participating in a dialogue about the future of the Arctic. They call for increased cooperation and joint development of the Arctic for the benefit of humanity, rather than geopolitical confrontation, as “Together we are stronger”. During the discussion, the focus was on ‘Blue Energy’ and ‘Ocean Energy’, which are the clean energy of the future. The region is extremely rich in natural resources: 30% of the world’s unexplored natural gas reserves and 13% of oil reserves are located in the subsoil of the Arctic. There is no other region in the world with such oil and gas reserves, fishing, mining and above all sustainable economic development. Melting ice opens up access to unexplored mineral and biological resources, as well as unlocking shipping routes for year-round navigation1.
The panelists focused on the opportunities and challenges presented by the Arctic. The panelists discussed the possibility of the Arctic becoming the world’s leading supplier of food in the future, as well as the world’s leading supplier of clean energy.
Nikolai Korchunov – High Ambassador of the Russian Foreign Ministry, senior official of the Arctic Council from the Russian Federation, said that only with joint efforts on the part of all Arctic countries can sustainable development be achieved, environmental risks reduced, transition to economy low emission, green energy solution for the Arctic to preserve the unique nature of the Arctic. Russia is not interested in confrontation with other countries, and Russia is open to cooperation with all interested parties to implement the Arctic 2050 strategy and to jointly conquer the Arctic and its treasures. Russia intends to organize important conferences and events related to climate change in the upcoming period, preventing pollution and degradation of the Arctic, creating a strategy for sustainable and green development of the Arctic, where countries will participate and cooperate with private business for development Arctic 2.
` Alexandra Middleton (Associate Professor at Oulu Business School, University of Oulu) strongly noted the collaboration between the Skolkovo Institute for Emerging Markets Research (IEMS) and NORD University Business School from Norway. Alexandra talks about the report Arctic 2050: Mapping the future of the Arctic and a vision of what the Arctic will look like in 2050. The report looks at the Arctic as we know it now, with major forces such as the climate crisis, demographic challenges and the creation of economic value, as well as Arctic technology and innovation. Researchers from around the world discuss the quality of the institutional environment and the pace of technology and innovation in the Arctic. The researchers identified four Arctic development scenarios inspired by key historical eras. Alexandra talks about two scenarios. In the romantic scenario, money stops flowing to the Arctic due to increased institutional constraints. What was once a global business magnet has turned out to be just the thing for a National Geographic film location. In the Renaissance scenario, nations agree to make Arctic exploration—just as much as space exploration—a symbol of international cooperation and humanity’s eternal pursuit of progress and innovation. Governments are agreeing on standards for doing business in the Arctic, driving the use of best available technology and innovation to demonstrate that decoupling is possible3.
Frode Nielsen (PhD and Professor of Marketing, Nord University Business School) said he wanted to talk about “the challenges and opportunities offered by the Arctic”. He focused on Western Russian interests in the Arctic. The main question for both the West and Russia is related to the valuable resources in the Arctic and whether there are other resources that have not been discovered. This is the most important question for ages. “As a result of climate change, the development of new sophisticated technologies, the West and Russia must work together for the sustainable use of Arctic resources and wealth through the ‘blue economy.’ Two important questions are which sectors of the “blue economy” in the transformation of the Arctic will have the greatest impact on the world economy and will be able to meet its needs, and what are the opportunities and limitations for a strong increase in Arctic reproduction. “As a result of the Arctic, the ‘blue economy’ is more relevant today than ever”4.
Mads Quist Frederiksen – Director of the Arctic Economic Council talks about the future of the Arctic economy. The temperature in the Arctic is rising three times faster than in other regions of the world. Climate change has a major negative impact on the Arctic and its development, as well as existing infrastructure. Next comes the decade of the ocean and the ocean economy. The world will need more resources from the oceans to feed itself in the coming decades. The Arctic is extremely rich in rare metals, which will become increasingly important in the future. Europe today is 90% dependent on the supply of rare metals from China. But the green economy and the green transition are impossible without rare metals. Eighty-five percent of the world’s population lives in the northern hemisphere, and the Arctic connects them all. The Northern Sea Route will be the main trade route in the 21st century5.
Russia has an ambitious government policy on the Arctic, and to this end, Russia is investing in a number of innovative infrastructure, energy, transport and scientific projects in the Arctic. Russia is openly calling on other countries to join its mega-projects to conquer the Arctic. China and India are primarily interested in these mega projects, but other Asian countries are also showing interest.
At the same time, the intensification of economic activity has a significant impact on both the environment and the living conditions of the indigenous population. Understanding the driving forces that will transform the business and political landscape of the Arctic in the coming decades is critical for policymakers and businesses to devise mutually beneficial approaches to exploit emerging opportunities without harming the Arctic’s unique nature and social ecosystem6 . The harsh environmental conditions of the Arctic have historically hindered economic activity in the region. Climate change, new technologies and innovations open up new perspectives for the development of these territories. The Arctic has become one of the hotspots of geopolitics: global and regional players seek to expand their borders. The future of the Arctic is a complex and synthetic problem, so its solution can only be ensured by integrating the efforts of all Arctic countries.
At this moment, Russia is doing everything right, the east-west march (Northern Sea Route) will be more and more in demand. Russia gives freight preferences to Russian cargo and Russian shipbuilding companies. The Arctic is a region with gas and clean energy, minerals and metals, as well as great potential for renewable energy from wind and hydropower, and thanks to this important factor, the Arctic can become a platform for green industrial processing.
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Author of the article: Darko Todorovski – Master of International Relations and military analyst
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