Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on November 15, the first direct communication in almost two years and almost three years after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, raises new hopes for peace, negotiations and diplomatic dialogue. As the press reported, the two heads of state discussed how and under what conditions the Russian-Ukrainian war could be ended during the phone call, which is said to have lasted an hour.
Telephone diplomacy or election campaign kickoff?
The Federal Chancellery announced that Chancellor Scholz spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj both before and after the conversation with President Putin and that his Western allies were also informed about his plans. The day after the phone call, criticism came from Poland and Ukraine that they were providing Putin with propaganda material. He doesn’t understand anything about diplomacy, but probably sees Scholz’s call as weakness.
The further course of the diplomacy initiated by Scholz will depend on whether anything actually comes of the diplomatic exchange behind closed doors.
The timing of Scholz’s telephone diplomacy is of course remarkable: the most important developments were Donald Trump’s landslide election victory in the USA and the dissolution of the Scholz-led coalition government in Germany and the decision to call early elections on February 23rd.
It is no secret that there will be some changes in Ukraine policy after Trump takes office on January 20th. The most important is probably the reduction of US economic and military support for Ukraine, passing the bill for continued escalation to Europe.
Scholz’s vote calculation in Ukraine
It is more or less foreseeable that Germany – Ukraine’s largest military and economic supporter after the USA – will not be able to maintain the previous level of support. Former Finance Minister Christian Lindner and his FDP reject lifting the debt brake for the supplementary budget in order to be able to provide Ukraine with more financial resources, while Scholz and his SPD argue that higher borrowing would enable the necessary help for Ukraine, while social restrictions would still have to be implemented in some areas, but could in principle be financed. Lindner, on the other hand, wanted to continue aid to Ukraine, but make social cuts in order to be able to meet the required budget. The departure of Lindner and his party from the government, which, together with the other coalition partner, the Greens, were more in favor of German participation in the war, appears to have strengthened Scholz. Resistance within the government to a policy change may have been partially weakened by the extension of the war and the election of Trump. This seems to give Scholz more leeway despite his political weakening.
Another, perhaps the most important, reason for Scholz’s “telephone diplomacy” with Putin is the early election campaign. A significant proportion of voters who are against the government’s war policy are now voting for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Scholz hopes to be able to win back some of the lost voters by February 23rd. As a “peace chancellor” he could get a boost. However, it is unclear to what extent the balance of power in domestic and foreign policy allows this. Many voters voted for the BSW, which calls for more diplomatic initiatives to end the war. Now the Chancellor can say: He is talking to Putin. The phone call should not be inconvenient for Scholz during the election campaign.
War can spread at any time
The timing of Scholz’s phone call with Putin is already being criticized. Zelensky, who was informed about the meeting in advance, described Scholz’s phone call with Putin as “opening Pandora’s box” and as a contribution to lifting Russia’s isolation. In the same statement, Zelensky also suggested that the war could end in 2025. Judging by the statements of the last few days, Russia, Ukraine and Germany have not closed themselves to the negotiating table. However, there is no reliable data or indication as to whether this will happen before January 20th or February 23rd.
On the other hand, there are efforts to prolong the war. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen were among those who criticized Scholz’s phone call with Putin. Immediately after the phone call, the USA apparently allowed Ukraine to station US long-range weapons (ATACMS) against Russia, as several US media outlets unanimously reported. Officials in both the United States and Ukraine are cautious in their comments. US President Joe Biden has not yet confirmed the reports.
Germany has already granted similar approval for “defense purposes.” Judging from these authorizations, the conditions are in place for the war to spread to a larger area at any time. Further escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine could prevent Trump from fulfilling his campaign promises, even if he doesn’t want to. Such a situation could also jeopardize Scholz’s title as “Peace Chancellor”. Ukraine could also ask for permission to use long-range weapons supplied by Germany and the US against Russia in order to push back Russia or at least give itself a better starting position for negotiations.
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**Considering the potential escalation risks associated with prolonged conflict in Ukraine, should Scholz’s initiative be viewed as a necessary step towards de-escalation, or does it risk emboldening Putin and undermining Western unity?**
## World Today News Presents: Scholz’s Diplomatic Overture - Peace or Politics?
**Welcome to World Today News. Today, we delve into the recent phone call between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a move sparking debate within Germany and the international community. To discuss the implications of this historic conversation, we’re joined by two esteemed guests:**
* **Dr. Anna Schmidt**, a Professor of International Relations at the University of Berlin and a leading expert on Eastern European affairs.
* **Mr. Thomas Müller**, a political analyst and commentator for the German news outlet, Der Spiegel, known for his insightful reporting on domestic politics.
**Let’s begin by dissecting the context surrounding this phone call. Dr. Schmidt, Chancellor Scholz’s conversation with President Putin marks the first direct communication between the two leaders in almost two years. How significant is this development, particularly in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine?**
**(Dr. Schmidt Responds)**
**Mr. Müller, Chancellor Scholz has faced criticism from some quarters, who view this diplomatic outreach as a sign of weakness and a concession to Russian aggression. How do you assess the domestic political ramifications of this phone call for Chancellor Scholz?**
**(Mr. Müller Responds)**
**Moving on to the potential impact on the conflict itself, the timing of this call is noteworthy. It coincides with Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and the looming German federal election. Dr. Schmidt, could these elections influence the diplomatic landscape surrounding the war in Ukraine?**
**(Dr. Schmidt Responds)**
**Mr. Müller, some analysts suggest that Chancellor Scholz’s “phone diplomacy” might be motivated by a desire to appeal to voters disillusioned with Germany’s current approach to the war. What are your thoughts on this interpretation?**
**(Mr. Müller Responds)**
**The possibility of renewed peace negotiations remains a glimmer of hope amidst the ongoing conflict. However, Dr. Schmidt, concerns have been voiced about the potential for an escalation of hostilities. Given recent reports of the potential deployment of long-range weapons by both sides, how do you see this balancing act unfolding?**
**(Dr. Schmidt Responds)**
**Mr. Müller, what role do you see Germany playing in navigating this delicate situation? What are the potential consequences for Germany, both domestically and internationally, depending on the trajectory of the war?**
**(Mr. Müller Responds)**
**Thank you both for your insightful analysis. This phone call has undoubtedly opened a Pandora’s Box, raising complex questions about peace, politics, and the future of the Ukraine conflict. The world watches with bated breath as the diplomatic drama unfolds.**
**(Closing Remarks) **
