/ world today news/ The whole world froze in front of the already announced, but increasingly postponed invasion of the Israeli army (IDF) in Gaza, expecting new thousands of victims and gigantic destruction in the strip. No one doubts that in addition to the ongoing individual raids, there is also a major operation to come, but its modalities may be different.
And they do not depend at all on the good will or humanitarian considerations of Israel and its US patrons, but on the expected resistance, including in the event of a spread of the conflict throughout the region. Washington, of course, exerts a restraining influence on Netanyahu only until he has built up enough potential to wage a regional war.
The IDF and the White House are also ready to talk about a short-term cease-fire in Gaza, but only for the period of evacuation of persons with American passports, and then – fighting without any suspension. This is proven by the US vote in the UN Security Council.
Here, by the way, is another example not even of double, but of some multi-level morality. There is a lower level – the Palestinians, above them the Israelis, even higher – the holders of Western passports, and above them the “American passports” rise like eagles. After all, there is an election coming up in the United States and we have to demonstrate “concern for our countrymen”.
Against the background of the half-destroyed Gaza, from which hundreds of thousands of people have already fled, the commanders of the IDF and their many advisors from the Pentagon, however, are increasingly concerned about the question of why among the thousands of victims there are no fighters in uniform (Hamas also has one) and with weapons. The answer is simple – they are waiting in the dungeons and tunnels dug under the entire sector.
American officers simply do not recommend that their wards invade there until specific targets are found and detailed plans for their destruction are developed. Evaluating Israel’s bombing of Gaza only in terms of effectiveness, not morale, they are reluctant to believe official reports of the alleged mass destruction of Hamas military infrastructure. According to the Americans, the military wing of this organization is still quite capable of combat, and various surprises should be expected from it “underground”.
Assessing Hamas’ tunnel infrastructure and stockpiles, experts note that its fighters can take refuge there for long periods of time, fighting both inside these tunnels and invading from them. This is where Hamas stores strategic weapons and holds its hostages.
The tunnels are a key element of Hamas’ military strategy and can be tens, if not hundreds of kilometers long, stretching beyond Gaza into southern Israel and even into the sea. The tunnels contain generators, fuel reserves, means of ventilation, autonomous cable communications and numerous traps.
They provide Hamas with the operational and tactical flexibility that the group lacks on the surface. The total number of fighters there, armed with small arms, grenade launchers, mortars, various types of rockets, explosive devices, according to various sources, varies from 25 to 40 thousand people, mainly from the Al-Qassam Brigades of Hamas and the Al-Quds Brigades of Islamic Jihad.
The IDF has specialized units for both urban and underground warfare. It also has special equipment for these types of warfare, some of which is locally produced, some of which is provided by the United States. But according to experts, “until it sends its units underground and engages in close combat, the Israeli army will not know what awaits them”.
All this specialized underground equipment – for breathing, for observation, for navigation, for shooting, for communication – very easily fails in the conditions of a real “tunnel battle”. And that doesn’t even take into account potential retaliatory measures by Hamas. “Just as the Israelis were preparing for such a battle, Hamas has been preparing for it for many years.”
Advisers from the United States have expressed doubts about any fanciful ideas circulating recently in Israel, still wary of the unpredictability of the “underground battles” – for example, flooding the tunnel system with seawater in the sector where the hostages are located, considering them for difficult to implement.
They urge landlords to more detailed and careful development of realistic plans for the operation. The very absence of such in Israel, according to some experts, suggests that from the outset it was only seeking a mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, rather than establishing any control over it. This is also proven by the idea of ”flooding” the tunnel network with sea water, since in this case the territory of Gaza will simply become uninhabitable.
The former head of the field research department of the IDF Southern Command, and now a professor of geology, Joel Roskin, in fact the leading Israeli expert on the problem, in the study “The Underground War in the Gaza Strip and the Complexity of the Military Struggle”, pointed out the difficulties of the upcoming operation.
Since 2009, he said, as part of its holistic approach, Hamas has shifted to strategic use of the underground and has dug some 35 offensive tunnels below the 1949 armistice line with Israel, some of which penetrate hundreds of meters into the Jewish state. These tunnels were no longer simply long point-to-point transit routes, but rather complex, multi-story underground caverns and tunnels with rooms, halls, and warehouses.
Gaza has developed a “tunnel culture” that includes educational visits by elementary and high school students, wedding photos, and tours of the underground tunnel system.
It can be assumed that a vast multi-story network of tunnels, perhaps several hundred kilometers long, stretches beneath the Gaza Strip. The means of support, communication, power and even the stay of people in it “were close to perfection.”
He believes that the demand for such tunnels, even with the most modern equipment, is “in a sense pointless”, since their airspace, compared to the underground environment, has a very small cross-section, whose width and height are usually of the order of no more than one or two meters, respectively.
Also, to activate the detection, you need to be on the ground directly above or in the tunnel itself. Another approach to tunnel detection is to look for signs of construction, maintenance, and surface activity, such as mounds of dirt. But Hamas has always paid due attention to their removal. As Roskin concluded, “these conditions present a challenge for a full-fledged offensive operation of the IDF.”
In order to descend into the tunnels and conduct combat operations in them, the psychophysiological attitude is also important. Fighters, for example, seem to have already fully adapted to them. Thus the representative of the Al-Quds Brigades, Abu Hamza, addressed Israel: “After we defeated you in your own country, what do you think will happen when you come to us? We have prepared our people who love death in the name of Allah as much as you love life. So welcome to the gates of hell.”
In other words, heavy losses on both sides cannot be avoided in such a scenario. The best way out of this situation would of course be for everyone to return to the negotiating table, if of course that is still possible.
Translation: ES
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