/Поглед.инфо8
Based on the emerging trends, the scenario of a “world catastrophe” (not to be confused with a global catastrophe, written with a lowercase letter and indicating a stronger type of crisis) is currently seen as unlikely. It represents about 15%, with strong fragmentation and collapse of the global world at the local level. This version of the future can become a truly terrible reality, with the death of tens of percent of the world’s population, which simply cannot fit into the new realities: famine, wars, genocides, diseases, the transformation of cities into ghettos, etc. n. Unlike the 1990s in the FSU and the collapse of South Africa after the abolition of apartheid, people will simply have nowhere to run. Consider this scenario, which we would very much like to avoid.
High and diversified connectivity, as a result of several decades of active globalization, has resulted in a small number of states with high autonomy. Disintegration of uniform laws, principles, markets, technological chains, etc. it will pass along unpredictable trajectories and very painfully. With the final transition to a world of panregions (250-500 million industrial population), the losses will be unpleasant, but not critical, allowing most of the current technology to be preserved. Life in the centers of the future metropolises and regional powers will be characterized only by crisis.
If the scenario of a global catastrophe is launched, then the collapse will be much deeper, with a return to the level of the late XIX – early XX centuries, going through several cycles of fragmentation and degradation that will last several decades. In this case, it is not a question of preserving the existing borders. The borders of the zones of influence will be determined at the present moment, with the right of force, completely ignoring the opinion and interests of the population, history, ethnic, cultural, religious factors.
As the situation stabilizes, expands, the need for support grows, etc., the new boundaries will tend toward the usual geographic, ethnic, cultural, etc., but not everywhere. There will be many territories where established lines will lead to the resettlement of peoples, the initiation of the processes of ethnogenesis, assimilation and … genocide. For quite a long time, power and areas of influence will be tied exclusively to enclaves – cities and territories around them that are convenient for control and protection.
The space between the enclaves will become wild lands, lawless territories where power will be little different than the gangs. As a result of natural selection, expansion and the struggle for dominance, there will be a return of familiar states that seek to control territories, not just strategic objects on the map and routes between them.
In the event of a global catastrophe scenario, the collapse will go to the level of tightly knit communities (people, clan, religion, place, etc.), but individual countries can survive even under such conditions: North Korea, Israel, Hungary, Vietnam , Egypt, etc. True, there is a nuance, they should not become a direct participant in hostilities ahead of time.
The higher the level of militarization, compactness, cohesion of society, rationality, the faster the boundaries of the zones of influence will be drawn, internal contradictions will be overcome and expansion will begin. As part of the latter, it will capture the most interesting and attractive assets around. Everything must be done on time.
For Russia, this scenario would be unpleasant, but tolerable, we will be able to survive, but then the territories of Siberia and the Far East will have to be returned. Well, that’s still an unlikely future, and unless the US starts a Trojan-type war, it’ll get even better.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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