Now Ukraine and the world that is not indifferent to it are anxiously waiting for what other unexpected dirty tricks Putin will be honored with.
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Having failed to blackmail the United States and NATO, but not abandoned the goal of keeping Ukraine in his arms, he is very likely to seek its surrender. But how?
An important element of aggressive the Kremlin’s plans is to obtain the desired result for the minimum (by Russian standards) price. The fulfillment of this condition is achieved (again, according to the Kremlin), bringing Ukraine to a state of inability to defend itself, blocking it from outside help and minimizing sanctions pressure on Russia for aggressive actions. Why, by the way, Russia is trying to use the West to force Ukraine to comply with the final provisions of Minsk-2 (and launches rumors about it, including through the efforts of some Ukrainian experts, as an almost accomplished fact)? Because if this happens, Ukraine will face a new revolution, chaos and resentment from the West for the intransigence of Ukrainians. In such a state, according to the Kremlin’s calculations, Ukraine will become easy prey, and without any sanctions. It is impossible to rule out the possibility of such a development of events, but there are not enough reasons to talk about the implementation of this plan now, especially given the decisive position of Western countries, consolidated by the Russian threat.
Today, however, we have never heard Putin abandon his goal of pacifying Ukraine. Then what else can he decide on – taking into account the above condition (everything and almost for next to nothing)? On a large-scale offensive? Then – “hellish” sanctions, which will deal a crushing blow to the Russian economy and the pockets of the Russian elite. It is unlikely that Putin will agree with this alignment. But if he agrees, then tanks will not be at the forefront (against whom Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov three times more weapons) and not ships (to which we can oppose the long-awaited «Neptune”), and aviation and missile forces. The first targets for them will be air defense and air defense systems, command posts, critical infrastructure, after which the advantage of Russian forces in the air and the initiative on land and sea are guaranteed. Of course, this is far from a victory – the Ukrainians will not give up, they will fight to the last, and Russia will face not only hellish sanctions, but also material and human losses, and Putin will be responsible for all this. And most importantly, the loss of Ukraine, finally and forever.
What else is hidden in the hands of the master of the game of thimbles? Have hybrid methods of influence on Ukraine been exhausted? Everything indicates that it is not. Reliance on military force proved (and continues to prove) his falsity; attempts to bring obedient puppets to power never brought the desired result; attempts at economic takeover – encountered resistance from Ukrainian oligarchs; bringing to energy crises – became the cause of certain damage and losses, but nothing more; cyber attacks too. What if everyone is together?
Possible scenario of Russian hybrid blitzkrieg
At the first stage:
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