SCBEIC expects the Thai economy to grow 2.2% this year, slowly recovering. While purchasing power in the country is expected to recover slowly as well. From the new outbreak at the beginning of the year that will aggravate the existing economic scar.
The Center for Economic Research and Business (EIC) Siam Commercial Bank estimates that the Thai economy in the year 64 is likely to recover slowly. And there are also many risks. The latest EIC forecast expects the Thai economy this year to expand at 2.2%, a slow recovery. This has major constraints following a slow recovery in tourism, with the EIC expecting only 3.7 million tourists this year. While purchasing power in the country is expected to recover slowly as well. The new outbreak at the beginning of the year will worsen existing economic scars, including the closure of businesses and potentially increasing unemployment. Which directly affects purchasing power of the public sector
In addition, according to the report of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) or the NESDB, the Thai economy in the fourth quarter of ’20 contracted by -4.2%, while the whole year 63, the Thai economy contracted -6.1%, the lowest in 22 rounds. A year since the Tom Yam Kung crisis in 41 years, that year, the Thai economy contracted -7.6%.
The Thai economy in the fourth quarter of 2020 improved more than expected. From the recovery of private consumption, exports and increased inventory The contraction of -4.2% YOY was less than the EIC forecast of -5.4%, and the full year 63 Thai economy contracted less than the EIC expected of -6.5%.
“The economic contraction in the fourth quarter was a less than expected contraction. From the recovery of private consumption that has been supported by government measures The export sector improved in line with the world economy direction. Including the increased inventory level For this year, the EIC expects the Thai economy to expand gradually. From restrictions on the recovery of the tourism sector The effect of the second wave of outbreaks will hit the existing economic scar. In addition, there are many risks, ”said the SCB EIC.
However, the government will play an important role in supporting the economy this year, most recently the government has approved the project We Won and the 33rd we love each other to heal more than 40 million people affected by a total amount of more than 2.5 billion baht. These measures are expected to provide some measure to the affected people. In addition, the government is likely to introduce other measures. They will also add during the rest of the year to support the economic recovery.
However, the recovery of the global economy and trade must be monitored better than expected. According to the latest export data of many countries that are gradually released This will directly affect the recovery of Thai exports and the overall Thai economy, with the EIC re-evaluating. And published a new forecast in early March.
The risk factors that need to be watched include: 1) time to control the new outbreak, 2) widespread delay in vaccination in Thailand, 3) economic scars that may affect financial stability through debt default. 4) Domestic political stability problems This may affect investment confidence, 5) the drought from the water level in the dam that is still lower than the historical average, and 6) the baht appreciation faster than its competitors. Which may affect the recovery of the export sector And international tourism
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