Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The number of confirmed coronavirus infections in India has surpassed five million and is the second highest in the world after the US. The virus appears to be spreading much faster in India than any other country, with daily cases hitting 90,000 over the five days to Tuesday (9/15).
More than 80,000 people have died amid reports of a shortage of intensive care beds and oxygen supplies, according to the BBC. But the mortality rate is lower than in many countries with high caseloads.
The increase in infections comes as the government continues to lift country-wide restrictions to try to boost the economy when the virus hit in March.
For one, gyms are the newest to reopen, while schools, colleges and cinema halls remain closed. But most workplaces and markets are returning to normal, and many cities are allowing restaurants and bars to resume serving alcohol, which is likely to increase visitor numbers.
How did India get to this point?
In the early stages of Covid-19, India appeared to be doing well, enforcing a tight lockdown, but the virus then hit major cities like Mumbai and the capital, Delhi, before surging in small cities and rural areas.
Despite the increase, the government has relaxed restrictions to recover from the effects of the initial lockdown between March and June which hit the economy hard.
As India opened up and people returned to work, Covid-19 cases also spiked. About 600,000 cases were added last week.
India’s caseload now stands at 5,020,359 after adding 90,123 cases in the last 24 hours. Even though the virus has spread to every corner of the region, the bulk of the caseload comes from five states.
Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra and India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, also account for more than 60% of active cases. But the increase in the number of cases is also partly a reflection of India’s increasing testing and already carrying out more than one million tests a day.
Lack of oxygen
With the increasing number of cases, the demand for oxygen of course has also increased exponentially in recent times.
Hospitals and care centers have consumed up to 2,700 tonnes of oxygen daily this month, compared with 750 tonnes in April, according to data obtained from the All India Industrial Gases Manufacturers Association.
Oxygen producers say industrial oxygen demand is also increasing as more factories are now reopening.
It is a life versus livelihood question that India is facing right now, says BBC India correspondent Soutik Biswas. India now needs to increase capacity to ensure that industry and patients do not suffer.
Most oxygen plants are built near cities and major cities. Many areas, such as the capital Delhi, do not have a single oxygen producer, and all supplies have to come from neighboring regions.
The mortality rate in India is very low
India has reported 82,066 deaths from Covid-19 so far, and has recorded around 1,000 daily deaths in recent weeks.
Although it is the fifth highest tally in the world in absolute numbers, it amounts to around 60 deaths per million population. And India’s case fatality rate, a measure of death among Covid-19 patients, is only 1.6%. For the US, about 3% and the UK around 11%.
Many epidemiologists attribute the low mortality rate to the young population. Other South Asian countries with young populations also report low mortality rates, some even lower than India.
Some experts also believe the state counts fewer deaths. And they also cited the fact that some states are linking Covid-19 deaths to the underlying condition or illness.
Even so, they add that it is difficult to scale under the calculations without reliable historical data and excess mortality calculations.
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