Israel’s attack on Iran likely damaged a base run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program, satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press showed on Tuesday.
The damage to the Shahroud base raises new questions about the Israeli attack on Saturday morning, particularly because it took place in an area that Tehran had not previously recognized and involved the Guard, a powerful force within the Iranian theocracy. who until now has remained silent about any possible damage he may have suffered as a result of the assault. Iran has only identified Israeli attacks as occurring in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran, not in the rural province of Semnan, where the base is located.
It could also further limit the Guard’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran has long relied on that arsenal, unable to buy the advanced Western weapons that Israel and its Gulf Arab neighbors have armed themselves with over the years, particularly from the United States.
Satellite photographs previously analyzed by the AP of two military bases near Tehran, also attacked by Israel, show that the sites there that Iran uses to make ballistic missiles have been destroyed, further limiting its program.
“We don’t know if Iranian production has been paralyzed, as some say, or if it has simply been damaged,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. “We have seen enough images to show that there is an impact.”
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military declined to answer questions from the AP, but sent an earlier statement acknowledging that the attack targeted “missile manufacturing facilities.”
Images show important building at Shahroud base destroyed
High-resolution Planet Labs PBC satellite images taken and analyzed by the AP showed damage to the Guard’s Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, about 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Semnan is also home to the Imam Khomeini Space Center, which is used by Iran’s civilian space program.
The images showed that a central and important building of the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed; The shadow of its still-standing structure was seen in the image taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles could be seen gathering around the site, probably from officials inspecting the damage, with more cars than normal parked at the main gate of the nearby site.
Three small buildings located to the south of the main structure also appear to have been damaged. Iran has been constructing new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar located northeast of the main building also appears to have suffered damage.
Iran has not acknowledged any attack on Shahroud. However, given the damage caused to multiple structures, it suggested that the Israeli attack included targeted attacks on the base. Low-resolution images after the attack showed signs of damage at the site that had not been seen before the assault, further pointing to Israeli missile strikes as the culprit.
“We cannot 100% exclude the possibility that it was something else, but it is almost certain that this building was damaged due to an Israeli attack,” Hinz said.
Hinz, who has long studied the site, said the large building was surrounded by earthen berms, suggesting high explosives were handled there. That central site likely handles solid fuel blending and smelting operations, he added.
The large boxes next to the building are probably also missile motor boxes, Hinz said. Their sizes suggest they could be used for Iran’s Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile that Iran claims can reach Mach 15, which is 15 times the speed of sound. Both have been used in Iran’s attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and the subsequent ground invasion of Lebanon.
The attack on Shahroud, added to others across the country, has likely put more pressure on Iran’s theocracy, particularly as it assesses the damage to its main arsenal and tries to downplay the attack.
“Thanks to the preparation and vigilance of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the timely reaction of the country’s air defense, some of the attacked points suffered limited damage,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement. a meeting with foreign diplomats held on Tuesday in Tehran. “The necessary measures were immediately taken to restore the damaged equipment to operational status.”
US fears National Guard space program is cover for missile research
A short distance from the destroyed buildings is a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has carried out a number of successful missions launching satellites into space using mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to the 85-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revealed its secret space program in 2020.
The 2024 global threat assessment by the U.S. intelligence community said Iran’s continued development of satellite launch vehicles would “shorten the timeline for producing” an ICBM because it uses similar technology.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is currently producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels following the failure of its nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons if it decides to produce them, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned.
Iran has always denied that it seeks nuclear weapons and claims that its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003. Parchin, one of two military bases near Tehran that Israel is targeting, saw a building linked to that program destroyed.
“As with Iran’s nuclear program, you don’t build the system itself, you build all the technology under the cover of a civilian program,” Hinz said.
Iran could then make the decision to acquire the weapon or use its knowledge as a bargaining chip with the West regarding international sanctions.
But for now, satellite photos suggest that Iran is still trying to assess the consequences of Israel’s attack.
“The picture that is emerging is of significant damage to Iranian air defenses as well as missile launch facilities, both aimed at showing the Iranians that they are vulnerable to further attacks if they attempt to retaliate,” he said. an analysis published Monday by two experts from Britain’s Royal United Services Institute.
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