Protests have been taking place in Belarus for several weeks before the August 9 presidential elections. Alexander Lukashenko, known as the last European dictator, has fallen at the mercy of the younger generation – the country’s hottest Internet meme is now “Sasha 3%”, who laughs at the leader’s popularity. The president, on the other hand, opposes a 26-year consolidation of power, which allows for the brutal extinction of perhaps any crowd of protesters.
No elections in Belarus have taken place freely and fairly since 1995, according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). What is happening in Latvia’s neighboring country suggests that this year will not be an exception either. However, as the experienced Belarusian freelance journalist points out in a conversation with Delfi Hanna Ļubakova, which has previously studied corruption and money laundering in Belarus, the resistance of dissatisfied citizens with the Lukashenko regime is different from what has been experienced before and the final result cannot be reliably predicted at present.
3% and cockroaches
Several Belarusian Internet portals offered readers a survey asking which candidates they would vote for. The media did not take into account the expected response of people – about 70 thousand (6% supported by Lukashenko), about 55 thousand readers (3% supported by Lukashenko) and 16 thousand (by Nashiva in Niva). Lukashenko’s support – also 3%). Of course, this type of survey is not sociologically representative, but it was enough to give fire to social networks. They are burning even more as the state reacted to these data, recalling that any kind of political poll requires special accreditation.
It should be noted that there are no other reliable sociological data showing the real support rates of Lukashenko and his opponents. One of the last available data sources is the IISEPS think tank performance in 2016.
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