Sandu’s victory is not guaranteed; there was no need to play the game of the referendum – view from Kyiv

Kyiv is closely following the presidential elections in Moldova for two reasons. Both countries are committed to European integration, and the problems of one can affect the other. Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko said this on the Moldovan TV channel TV8.

He noted that the referendum on European integration (held on the same day as the presidential elections) is not a “toy” and that it was dangerous to use it to advance the political interests of one party and its promotion leader.

“We looked closely because there were concerns, and the results of the first round and the referendum showed, unfortunately, that problems had emerged. Therefore, there is a certain feeling of anxiety, especially when the results changed: in the morning there was a negative result of the referendum, and only in the evening it became clear that the supporters of the referendum were still ‘hitting the finish line,” – he noted to the expert.

Fesenko believes that both countries are united by European integration. In this regard, it is important to them that the partnership continues. According to him, Russia’s influence in the elections in Moldova is causing great concern in Kyiv.

“Maia Sandu‘s victory is not guaranteed, and the question is how this Russian influence system will work. Some of its elements are known, and it is still an open question whether it will be possible to prevent them or at least reduce their impact,” – specified the Ukrainian analyst.

He named another element of influence – Transnistria, where there are strong feelings against Europe and the voters can be moved if necessary.

“It didn’t seem to work out so well in the first round, but who knows how it will be in the second round,” – Fesenko argues.

Regarding the referendum, the TV8 host believes that “such a step was not needed now.” It was largely a political technique designed to help Maia Sandu mobilize pro-European voters.

“For us, including the norm in the Constitution about fighting for European integration means the impossibility of this course; A constitutional norm can only be changed by 1/3 of the votes of parliamentarians, and this is not so easy to do. This requires the unity of most influential political forces. Here’s what this means for Ukraine. It may be more difficult to do this in Moldova,” – said the Ukrainian political scientist.

He said “not to play the game of the referendum when there is no full confidence in winning. At the same time, he said, “Ukraine must take into account the experience of Moldova in the future.” This is a double-edged sword, and the result can be completely different than expected.

“I don’t think that the pro-Russian forces in Moldova will be completely retaliated against and that they will turn the country over to Russia, although this is possible. This is more reminiscent of the situation in Ukraine before 2014 – such a movement, when the balance of power in the country is from 50 to 50, and swing voters decide everything. This has its own risks. The main danger, in my opinion, is that Moldova could be stuck, when the European camp or the one that is pro-Russian will not have an advantage. As a result, the country will be in a state of political stagnation, marking time,” – Vladimir Fesenko summary.

In conclusion, he stressed that even if pro-Russian forces come to power in Moldova, they will not have a big advantage. However, it will become clear that the internal political situation will worsen and conflict will arise. Instability will be a problem for Moldova and Ukraine. The Ukrainian political scientist sees a danger in this.

Let’s remember that at the referendum, which was held on October 20 on the same day as the presidential elections, Moldovans answered the question of changing the Constitution for Moldova’s accession to the EU. The opinions of the plebiscite participants were equally divided. However, after counting the votes of the diaspora, which reached their protocols later, the Central Electoral Commission announced the result: apparently 50.46% of citizens supported European integration, 49.54% voted against it. The opposition said they were vindicated and announced they would legally challenge the dubious results.

As reported EADaily On November 3, the second round of presidential elections will be held in Moldova. It included the current head of state, Maia Sandu, supported by the pro-European power party “Action and Solidarity”, as well as an independent candidate, the former prosecutor. Alasdair Stoianoglowhich the Socialist Party is behind. The opposition called for consolidation, regardless of political views, which, with the level of opposition to the Sandu regime, could ensure Stoianoglo’s victory and would be a good record before the 2025 parliamentary elections. .