The Transfer Portal Claims Another Star

San Diego State’s basketball program is facing a significant transition as star freshman magoon Gwath entered the transfer portal on Monday, March 24, 2025. This proclamation follows senior guard Nick Boyd’s departure just days before, signaling a challenging new chapter for the Aztecs. The timing is especially challenging, coming shortly after the team’s NCAA Tournament appearance, where they confidently declared, “We’ll be back.”

gwath, a 7-foot NBA prospect, is also expected to test the NBA Draft waters.Though,the prevailing sentiment suggests that if he returns to college,it likely won’t be with San Diego State. His decision underscores the growing influence of Name, image, and Likeness (NIL) deals and the transfer portal in reshaping college basketball.

“Financially, it’s hard for us to compete with some of these other schools for these upper-level kids,” SDSU coach Brian Dutcher said. “We can compete in every other way. we can’t compete financially with the money that’s being offered for some of these players. It is what it is. It’s a new world.”

Dutcher’s candid assessment highlights the financial hurdles that many programs now face in retaining top talent. The allure of lucrative NIL deals at other institutions is proving difficult to overcome. This situation mirrors similar challenges faced by mid-major programs across the country, as they struggle to compete with the financial resources of larger, power-conference schools.

The Million-Dollar Market

The financial stakes are undeniably high.Gwath, whose father works as an Uber driver and mother as a custodian in the Dallas area, is projected to command a significant NIL valuation. Dutcher estimates that Gwath could receive “in excess of $1 million, maybe as high as $1.5 million or $1.7 million” in the current market.

This escalating financial landscape is transforming the NCAA transfer portal into a “million-dollar market,” where athletes carefully weigh athletic development, exposure, and financial gain. While these opportunities empower athletes, they also raise concerns about fairness and the integrity of the recruiting process.The rise of NIL collectives,designed to pool resources and facilitate NIL deals for athletes,has further elaborate the landscape.

The MESA Foundation, SDSU’s basketball collective, has been actively working to bolster its NIL budget, increasing it from $350,000 three years ago to over $2 million for the 2025-26 season. While this puts them near the top of the Mountain West, it still lags behind the budgets of some high-major programs. This disparity creates a competitive disadvantage for SDSU and other similar programs.

The disparity in NIL budgets is becoming a critical factor in player recruitment and retention. Some programs are reportedly operating with total budgets,including both athletic department funds and collective contributions,ranging from $8 million to $10 million. This financial arms race is reshaping the competitive balance in college basketball, potentially creating a divide between the “haves” and “have-nots.”

The House Settlement and Revenue Sharing

The potential approval of the House settlement later this spring could bring about significant changes. The settlement proposes allowing schools to revenue-share $20.5 million with athletes, with an estimated $4 million earmarked for men’s basketball.However, collectives have a window until July 1 to distribute funds before stricter regulations and a NIL clearinghouse are implemented.

This impending shift is creating a sense of urgency and uncertainty within college basketball. Programs are grappling with how to navigate the current landscape while preparing for the potential changes on the horizon. The implementation of a revenue-sharing model could level the playing field to some extent, but questions remain about how these funds will be distributed and whether it will be enough to offset the advantages of programs with larger NIL collectives.

Dutcher’s Perspective: Unlimited Free Agency

“At the end of the day, fan bases should know it’s going to happen everywhere, even at schools that are paying a lot of money to players,” Dutcher said.”It’s what we thought when (NIL) happened. It’s unlimited free agency with no salary cap. There’s going to be movement every single year until the model changes.”

Dutcher’s analogy of “unlimited free agency with no salary cap” aptly describes the current state of college basketball.The absence of restrictions on player movement and compensation is leading to increased roster turnover and a highly competitive market for talent. This new reality requires coaches and programs to adapt their strategies for recruiting, retention, and team building.

“The reality of it is indeed, guys are leaving for financial reasons.”

This blunt assessment underscores the primary driver behind many transfer decisions. While factors such as playing time and coaching relationships still play a role, the financial incentives offered by other programs are frequently the deciding factor. This trend is forcing programs to re-evaluate their approach to player development and relationship building, as these factors may no longer be enough to retain top talent in the face of lucrative NIL offers.

Gwath’s Rise and Departure

Dutcher and his staff identified Gwath’s potential at a recruiting event in arizona two years ago. despite an injury-plagued high school career, SDSU offered him a scholarship, recognizing his raw talent and potential for development. After overcoming an ankle injury that required surgery and extensive rehab,Gwath emerged as a key player for the Aztecs in the 2024-25 season.

He averaged 8.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks over 26 games, earning him Mountain west Freshman of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year honors. His remarkable performance drew the attention of NBA scouts, further increasing his market value. Gwath’s story exemplifies the potential for mid-major programs to develop overlooked talent, only to see them lured away by larger programs with deeper pockets.

Gwath’s statement two weeks prior, “Right now, I’m looking more towards trying to get to the pros,” hinted at his future aspirations. The question then became whether he would opt for another year of college development at SDSU. Monday’s news confirmed that he would be exploring other options. This decision highlights the difficult choices that young athletes now face, weighing the benefits of further development against the potential for immediate financial gain.

A Growing Trend

Gwath’s potential transfer would mark the third consecutive year that the Mountain West Freshman of the year has jumped to a power-conference school. Darrion Williams transferred from Nevada to Texas Tech,followed by JT Toppin from New Mexico to Texas Tech. Toppin reportedly received $1.2 million in NIL payments this season, suggesting that Gwath could command even more.

This trend highlights the challenges that mid-major programs face in retaining their top talent. The allure of greater exposure, resources, and NIL opportunities at power-conference schools is proving difficult to resist. This exodus of talent could have a detrimental impact on the competitive balance of college basketball, as mid-major programs struggle to compete with the resources of larger schools.

Looking Ahead for the Aztecs

“Just grateful to have him in the program,” Dutcher said. “I like all the kids we have in our program. I like Nick,I like Magoon,I wish them all the best. There’s no ill will. It’s a new world, and financially there’s a lot of money out there. It’s like a guy comes up in a corporation. You bring him in as an intern, and he develops and turns into a really good employee, then he leaves for a better job for more money.”

Dutcher’s pragmatic approach reflects the changing realities of college basketball.He acknowledges the financial incentives that drive player decisions and expresses understanding for their choices. this acceptance of the new landscape is a sign of the times, as coaches and programs adapt to the realities of NIL and the transfer portal.

“How can you be mad at the guy? yeah, you developed him, but he’s good at what he does and now he’s stepped out and decided he wants to do something financially.”

as of monday afternoon, Gwath and Boyd were the only two players from the Aztecs to enter the portal. Discussions to retain the rest of the roster appear to be progressing well, even though players have until April 22 to enter the portal if they wish to play elsewhere in 2025-26.

The cautionary tale of Elijah Saunders, who appeared set to stay before suddenly entering the portal and transferring to Virginia last year, serves as a reminder that nothing is certain in the age of the transfer portal. This uncertainty underscores the need for programs to be proactive in their efforts to retain players and adapt to the ever-changing landscape of college basketball.