The former leader of the SNP creates his own party to achieve a pro-independence “supermajority” in the Scottish plebiscite elections on May 6
This decision is a reflection of the internal independence disputes between those who accelerate the process to separate from the United Kingdom and those who do not.
The unionist parties, minority until now in Scotland, believe that this division can benefit them and propose to create a pro-British coalition
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Former Scottish National Party (SNP) leader and former Scottish Chief Minister Alex Salmond, has decided to take the fight with his former spouse and successor in office, Nicola Sturgeon, from the courts to the polls and has created a new pro-independence party that will compete with the SNP in the decisive Scottish elections on May 6. Sturgeon has turned these elections into plebiscites and has promised to hold a new referendum if it gets a majority, even if the central government opposes. The SNP was the big favorite but the emergence of Salmond’s new party, which is called Alba, which means “Scotland” in Gaelic, changes the electoral landscape.
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At the match presentation, Salmond, 66, explained that wants to achieve a “independence supermajority” that guarantees the absolute independence majority and that he does not want to keep votes from the SNP. To understand Salmond’s words, you have to understand how the Scottish electoral system works, designed to make it very difficult to obtain an absolute majority. The 129 members of the Parliament of Edinburgh are chosen from two votes. In the first, voting is done by constituencies or electoral districts, where one candidate from each party is presented and the one with the most votes wins. Therefore, only the votes of the winner count. The rest of the votes are lost. 73 deputies are chosen in this vote.
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The remaining 56 deputies come out from a vote in which the list of a party is voted, not a particular candidate. There are 8 regions where 7 candidates are chosen each. Well, the Alba will only be presented to the voting by electoral lists and will present four candidates to each one of the 8 regions. Thus the votes that remain from the SNP remain in pro-independence hands. If he ran for candidate ballots, the votes would be lost if they were not first.
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Farage’s benchmark
Polls by the demoscopic firm YouGov say that the SNP could win 42% of the votes for lists (for candidates it is above 50%). The Alba would remain with 7% of the votes of the SNP and would obtain 7 seats and would remain between 1-2% of the vote of Labor and Conservatives. Since the return of powers in 1998, only the SNP, led by Alex Salmond, obtained an absolute majority with this system. It was in 2011 also with the referendum as a promise. That victory forced David Cameron to agree to holding the referendum three years later.
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Now Salmond wants this to happen again, but with a pro-independence majority. Somehow It is something similar to what Nigel Farage did with the Brexit Party, formation created only to pressure the Conservatives to carry out Brexit by staying with their most radical constituents. And they succeeded because the Conservative Party ended up electing Boris Johnson as its new leader. When Johnson implemented Brexit, Farage’s party disappeared because it no longer made sense. Salmond said he did not have Farage as a reference, although the goal is the same: to guarantee independence.
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The creation of Alba and the jump to the electoral arena of Salmond is a projection of the war between Salmond and Sturgeon that It began in 2018 with the accusation of sexual abuse by Salmond to two of his employees while he was in power before 2014. The SNP denounced Salmond, who was acquitted by the courts, and Salmond denounced the SNP for irregularities when accusing him. The judges also agreed with him and he managed to be compensated. Later, Salmond accused Sturgeon of conspiring against him and of lying to Parliament. Two investigations were opened whose findings were published last week with conflicting conclusions about Sturgeon’s innocence.
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Internal divergences
This dispute is also a reflection of two different ways of trying to achieve independence. There are radicals like Salmond who believe they want to speed up the process and look for alternative ways to achieve it beyond getting London to facilitate the process. Order 30, transferring powers from London to Edinburgh in order to hold the consultation, as happened in 2014. And there are the moderates like Sturgeon who want to go little by little and get authorization from London, an authorization that Johnson has already said he will grant. In fact, Sturgeon, although he has promised the new referendum if he wins, has not set any date as requested by the most radicals.
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Salmond explained that there are other alternatives to seeking independence beyond Order 30 that Sturgeon yearns for. “There is also the plebiscite, international legal action, peaceful street demonstrations, popular will,” explained Salmond. “There are important questions about the advisability of Salmond’s return to public office due to the doubts that his conduct has generated.“Sturgeon replied, referring to the allegation of sexual abuse. And he challenged him: “This will be decided by the voters.”
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The problem for Salmond is that his popularity has fallen to 14% among the population and 16% among SNP voters because of the abuse issue. Although he has been acquitted, the SNP continues to cast doubts on him. Until Salmond has threatened to prosecute Leslie Evans, Sturgeon’s chief of staff., who was the one who reported Salmond to the police and has not yet retracted. In other words, the war continues six weeks before the elections.
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