Written by: Benjamin Zarzour
The description of the war in Ukraine as a “regional conflict” has become an outdated description, as the expansion of its scope has accelerated the development of the conflict into a war to review the international order in general. North Korea’s maneuvers, then Israel’s war on Gaza and Venezuela’s threats of war against Guyana, even if not coordinated with Moscow, play a pivotal role in a major escalation by diverting the West’s attention and resources from Ukraine.
By the end of the year, key Western allies appeared to be less committed to the goal of a Ukraine victory than they had been earlier in the year. Aiding Ukraine militarily and economically has imposed high costs, and the outcome of the war remains of mutual importance to Ukraine and its Western partners, whether victory or defeat.
Insufficient and inconsistent supplies of weapons and ammunition predetermined the cessation of the counteroffensive in Ukraine. The slow pace of deliveries has caused them to fall behind the timelines that govern the Ukrainian military’s plans. Quantity restrictions also affected most types of materiel delivered, and they became increasingly scarce before the counterattack gained momentum. The artillery systems and tanks supplied to Ukraine were less advanced versions in Western inventories. In addition, Ukrainian forces were apparently supposed to make significant advances without a special air force to support their forces, despite Russian air superiority.
At the same time, the Russian side had precious months (December 2022 – May 2023) to build three fortified defense lines behind vast minefields. These minefields appear to have been underestimated in the run-up to the counterattack, leaving Ukrainian forces with a severe shortage of mine-clearing equipment.
Positional warfare
In early December, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine would adopt a defensive strategy. In agreement with the military high command, Ukrainian forces began building fortified defense lines opposite the Russian lines in the east and south, as well as along the Ukrainian-Russian border in the north. Military actions have developed into a fierce positional war of mutual attrition. Daily field reports indicate that Russia has the initiative in several specific locations along the front lines.
Hence, the stalled counteroffensive became the pivotal event of the year in Ukraine. It has reshaped the foundations of all developments in the country and the calculations of friends and enemies alike for 2024.
Russia is now adopting more expansive war aims in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin recently described “southern Ukraine” wholesale as “Russian territory,” Ukraine’s Black Sea coast as “the homeland of the Russian people,” and Odessa as a “Russian city.” The Kremlin also announced that the presidential elections in March 2024 will be held in the territories “reclaimed” from Ukraine.
NATO and the European Union
At the level of the Western alliance, the leaders of the Group of Seven decided during the NATO summit to define security commitments towards Ukraine for the post-war period. The G7 and other willing countries plan to reach a multilateral treaty with Ukraine, and perhaps bilateral security treaties between Ukraine and each participating country.
Ukraine intends to redouble its efforts to obtain an official invitation to join the 2024 NATO summit in Washington. Ukrainian popular support for NATO membership is recorded at between 70 and 80% in opinion polls, which strengthens the government’s incentive to seek membership.
No less popular is the support for EU membership, with Ukraine finally being granted official candidate status in December. The main motives behind the decision were more strategic than technical, as the “geopolitical” European Union seeks to install Ukraine in the bloc, which includes 27 countries. Unlike NATO, which postpones any decision until after the war, the European Union intends to open accession talks with Ukraine in the first quarter of 2024, on the condition that Kiev makes progress in meeting set accession criteria and ruling out any fast track to membership.
Brussels expects to bear the brunt of the post-war reconstruction process in Ukraine. We lack reliable, up-to-date estimates of the extent of the costs, and the definition of “post-war” remains vague and elusive. EU discussions on seizing Russian assets to finance the reconstruction process in Ukraine appear to be far from conclusive at this stage.
The Russian war has created a demographic catastrophe in Ukraine, where the destruction of infrastructure and housing has led to an exodus of refugees. This is described as the largest and fastest European population movement since World War II. Ukraine’s population was estimated at 45.3 million in 2013, the last year before the war. Massive population losses began with Russia’s seizure of Crimea and parts of the Donbass region in 2014, then increased with the refugee exodus in 2022. International and Ukrainian organizations’ estimates of refugee numbers for 2023 are inevitably marked by approximations and discrepancies.
The exact number of Ukrainian war casualties will remain classified information for the duration of the war. These numbers are in addition to the demographic and labor losses resulting from the shrinkage of lands and the departure of refugees. These factors will affect any assessment of the final outcome of the war in terms of winners and losers.
Zelensky has brilliantly promoted optimism about Ukraine’s eventual victory, and the just-announced rollback appears to have been a disappointment to many. Unsurprisingly, a backlash against “rosy” views ensued across the political spectrum.
Now Ukraine and its Western partners are at risk of losing the war entirely. They will not be able to win on the strength of the Ukrainian incentive alone. To sustain this enthusiasm, Western allies must recommit to sending long-range precision weapons, modern tanks, airpower capabilities, air defense systems, and munitions in preparation for a suitable counterattack.
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2023-12-28 20:12:53
