Russia’s War in Ukraine: A Prolonged Conflict?
A former Ukrainian military commander’s assessment paints a grim picture of the ongoing conflict in ukraine. General Sergei Naev,ex-commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ joint forces,predicts Russia could sustain its full-scale war for another 8 to 10 years,based on its current mobilization capabilities.
In an interview with Radio NV, Naev detailed Russia’s military strength, estimating its current size at over 2 million personnel, with 1.5 million being active military. He highlighted that approximately 400,000 individuals signed contracts with the Russian armed forces in 2024 alone, including 65,000 former convicts. “The reserve for quickly replenishing losses is at the level of 40 thousand people [в месяц],” Naev stated.
Beyond manpower, Naev also noted significant military restructuring within Russia.He reported the creation of roughly 15 territorial control regiments and the ongoing formation of two new motorized rifle divisions in 2024. However, he anticipates that Russia will face greater challenges in maintaining its equipment supply than its personnel numbers, projecting these difficulties to become significant by 2026.
Naev’s assessment is supported by other experts. According to Andrei Kovalenko, head of the National Security and Defense council Center for Action, “The Russian federation intends to fight throughout 2025,” aiming to maintain its war-fighting capacity for years to come. This long-term perspective underscores the gravity of the situation and its potential implications for global stability.
Naev further explained the current situation, stating, “The Russian command is forced to remove from storage the equipment that was in warehouses. They had 12,000 tanks and about 10,000 old-style armored vehicles. The Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively destroying enemy equipment, so they limit the use of armored columns during assaults.”
The implications of this protracted conflict extend beyond Ukraine’s borders. The potential for further instability in Eastern Europe and the continued strain on global resources and alliances are significant concerns for the United States and its allies. The ongoing conflict necessitates continued vigilance and strategic planning from the international community.
This analysis underscores the need for continued monitoring of the situation in Ukraine and the potential for a prolonged conflict. The implications for global security and the international community are significant and warrant close attention.
Can Russia Sustain Its war in ukraine for Another Decade?
Teh conflict in Ukraine has entered its second year, with no clear end in sight. A recent assessment from former Ukrainian military commander General Sergei Naev paints a grim picture,suggesting Russia possesses the manpower and capacity to wage war for another 8-10 years. We spoke with Dr. Katherine Zelenko, a military analyst specializing in Eastern European conflict, to understand the ramifications of such a prolonged war.
assessing Russia’s Military Capabilities
Senior Editor: Dr. Zelenko, General Naev estimates Russia’s military size at over 2 million personnel, with 1.5 million active. he also highlights the influx of 400,000 new recruits in 2024 alone,including 65,000 former convicts. Does this align with your understanding of Russia’s military strength?
Dr. Zelenko: General Naev’s figures are consistent with what we’ve seen. russia demonstrates a willingness to tap into its reserve forces and even utilize controversial methods like recruiting convicts to bolster its ranks. While the sheer number of personnel is significant, quality and training remain crucial factors.
Potential for a Long War
Senior Editor: Naev predicts Russia could sustain this war for a decade. How realistic is this scenario?
Dr. Zelenko: It’s certainly possible. Russia has a history of enduring protracted conflicts, and its vast resources, while strained, are still ample. However, sustaining a full-scale war for that long comes with significant economic and social costs. furthermore, the effectiveness of Russia’s military machine has been questioned due to logistical challenges and equipment losses.
equipment Strain and Future Challenges
Senior Editor: General Naev mentions Russia resorting to older equipment from storage. How will this impact their combat capabilities in the long term?
Dr. Zelenko: Relying on outdated equipment is a double-edged sword. It allows Russia to address immediate needs, but these older systems are less efficient and vulnerable. Maintaining them will become increasingly difficult, straining their logistical supply chains, especially by 2026, as Naev predicts.
International Implications
Senior Editor: What are the global implications of a protracted war in Ukraine lasting another decade?
Dr. zelenko: A prolonged conflict has significant ramifications for international security. It further destabilizes Eastern Europe, increases the risk of escalation, and diverts resources and attention from other pressing global issues. The continued strain on global alliances and the economic fallout will impact countries far beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Concluding Thoughts
Senior Editor: Thank you, Dr.Zelenko, for your insightful analysis.What message do you think is moast important for people to understand about the situation in Ukraine?
Dr. Zelenko: The war in Ukraine isn’t just a regional conflict. It’s a test of international order and the future of global security. The international community must remain vigilant, committed to supporting Ukraine, and actively pursuing diplomatic solutions to prevent this conflict from dragging on for years to come. The human cost and the broader implications are simply too high.
