Imants Liepiņš · 01.05.2024. · Comments (0)
The German newspaper “Die Welt” has published the first “peace treaty plan”, which Russia tried to impose on Ukraine already a month after the full-scale attack. It reveals Russia’s plans in all their horrific significance.
After the full-scale attack began on February 24, 2022, unsuccessful attempts to end the ceasefire began – first, Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in a small Belarusian town near the border, followed by talks in Istanbul (pictured) under the auspices of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
As everyone knows, these talks did not lead to anything – it quickly became clear that Russia was making incomplete demands on Ukraine, while delegations of Ukraine (which included, among others, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba, the Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov, the president of the largest parliamentary group Davids Arakhamiya, then the adviser of the office of the head -sitting Alexei Arestovičs et al.) the negotiating position was strengthened more and more by the news of Russia’s defeat at the front.
Unlike other such cases, there was no ceasefire during the negotiations, so Russia began to suffer defeats after the initial success until it was forced out of Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv regions and Kharkiv.
Now “Die Welt” refers to the 17-page version of the “peace agreement”, which was drawn up in Russian and agreed by the parties until April 15, 2022. The main points that the Russia to achieve:
– Complete and permanent military independence of Ukraine: non-participation in NATO or any other military alliances and not concluding defense agreements with any third country.
– Not allowing the troops of any other country to enter its territory and not giving access to the military infrastructure of Ukraine (including ports -air and seaports) to the army, air force and navy of any country. Ukraine is not trying to rebuild its nuclear capability, it is not buying nuclear weapons technology, and it is not developing it.
– Ukraine does not participate in any military exercises with any country, and does not participate in military conflicts with other countries in any capacity (it is not clear if this was also a plan to prevent Ukrainians from even participating in peacekeeping missions in other countries).
– At the same time, Crimea and Sevastopol are excluded from the planned neutral regime (that is, the neutrality of the territory does not apply when it is convenient for Moscow to send the forces of the Black Sea Fleet into the territory ofUkraine).
– Russia wants the entire Armed Forces of Ukraine to be reduced to 85 thousand personnel (a quarter of a million were fighting in Ukraine at that time), leaving only 342 tanks, 1029 armored vehicles another, only 519 cannons, 102 warplanes and 35 helicopters, as well as 2 warships across the Black and Sea of Azov.
– Moscow has asked to ban “fascism and Nazism in Ukraine”, despite this, they have always been banned in Ukraine since 1944.
– Introduce bilingualism and give Russian the status of the state language.
Of course, Russia was not going to leave the occupied territories and asked that the line of occupation should be discussed with Putin and Zelensky personally one to one. That is not to say that Russia in this “peace agreement from hell” did not expect any duties or obligations.
It was intended to attract the permanent members of the UN Security Council (the USA, the United Kingdom, France, China and – however uncertainly – Russia itself), as well as Belarus and Turkey, as guarantees for this agreement.
If the Ukrainian delegation had negotiated for their country’s neutral status and security guarantees when discussing the future of the army, navy and air force, then – as said “Die Welt” – was the request for the state language status for Russian. that was the final straw that ended the potential deal.
“With my interest in history and knowledge of military service, I don’t know of a single case where the attackers asked the victims to start a truce negotiation on the evening of the first day of the attack,” said A. Arestovičs in. in the summer of 2022, during the Ukrainian counter-offensive. But now Russia “offers peace conditions” can be seen in a different light.
Until now, we considered that Russian statements about the “revival of fascism” and “neo-Nazis in Ukraine” are attempts to give Ukraine concepts in public rhetoric that have a uniquely negative meaning in the West, thus harming opponents. However, the fact that the Russian version of the 17-page agreement strongly asks Ukrainians to “prevent fascism” shows that Russia itself really believes in “ne-Nazism and the revival of fascism” taking place in the neighboring country, and the foundations of the attack on such a foundation.
Also, the attempts to impose catastrophic reductions in the army, navy and air force on Ukraine show that Russia itself is taking seriously its slogans of “disarming the Ukraine” and act according to them in the literal sense. Also, Russian policy believes that it is very real that the Ukrainians might want to install nuclear weapons again on their territory and that they would be ready until the to buy their development technology from abroad, which must be stopped in a hurry – and this probability (according to the Kremlin) is so great that it justifies a military attack.
Seeing propagandists blathering in the public space for a year now, trying to “sell” to Russian voters and taxpayers this fiction of “neo-Nazism and the disarmament of the -Ukraine”, one can feel the huge cognitive dissonance between propaganda and reality. However, it turns out that the version that the Kremlin feeds the people with war propaganda is wrong, but the Russian leaders themselves understand the situation well enough and act in a way reasonably hidden.
It’s just the opposite – the Kremlin works on the basis of its irrational fictions and slogans that are not based on reality, trying to implement its fictions in a literal way and rejecting the facts it was observed in nature. While intercepted phone conversations with Russian soldiers in the course of 2022 show Russian soldiers visiting home from Donbas and saying “we turned out to be fascists, not Ukrainians” , at the same time the Kremlin tried to impose “demilarization and denazification” on Ukrainians, leaving it aggressive. , with unattached factual scenes.
This is very bad news for Latvia. If the Kremlin is based on completely different views of Ukraine with a population of 40 million, Moscow will have an even more false view of Latvia with a population of 2 million. And the fact that Russia is trying to impose its tactical goals that are not connected to reality on Ukraine gives reason to believe that the same thing would happen to Latvia.
Therefore, the insults expressed by the Kremlin that “Russian speakers are oppressed in Latvia” should be taken literally. The Kremlin really thinks so and believes that the requirement for people living in Latvia to know the national language is “violence”, which could justify a military attack. Insulting the Latvians in “aggressive nationalism” and “NATO expansion”, the Kremlin – as in the case of Ukraine – strongly believes that this is the basis for an attack on a neighboring country. Repeating from time to time the absurd statements that “NATO has expanded to the east, although Gorbachev once promised not to do it” (this is a complete work – such a thesis will not be found there any document, agreement, conference minutes, conference). communique or even the participants of these events in private memories) and asking NATO to “return to the borders of 1997”, Putin takes these slogans literally and not as part of public rhetoric.
Similarly, it would be bad news for Latvia to get involved in any piece of occupied land – if Russia decides to invade the Baltic States and take over even a little hectares, she will not leave this area no matter what. No amount of talks in Istanbul, protocols in Minsk or criticism from the UN tribune will help here, as proven by ten years of hard experience of Ukraine.
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2024-05-01 03:38:21
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