The threats came on Thursday, when the representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry to the UN, Konstantin Vorontsov, said that this type of infrastructure could become “legitimate targets in a counterattack”.
– There will be a strong escalation and an incipient war in space.
This is what Tom Røseth, Head of Intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, tells Dagbladet.
The Ukrainian military is heavily dependent on Elon Musk’s SpaceX for the internet, which is broadcast on the Starlink network. The network is made up of approximately 3,000 satellites in low earth orbit.
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Røseth points out that Russia certainly has the capacity to take threats seriously.
– The question is whether they dare to go up to the room. A whole new dimension will begin in this war, which will essentially be a war against the United States, and I think the threshold is high in Moscow. I don’t think they dare, because the American response will be strong, says Røseth.
BIG CHALLENGE: Since the start of the war, Russia has been trying to take out the Ukrainian communications system. So far, Vladimir Putin and his forces have not been able to do this. Photo: Ramil Sitdikov / Sputnik / Kremlin / AP / NTB
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– Hard to imagine
Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug points out the serious consequences such an escalation could have:
Among other things, these satellites are very important for gathering information on the situation on the ground in Ukraine and are used in all forms of global positioning.
– A good number of weapon systems, such as artillery, also depend on geolocation before being fired, he observes.
The images that change the war
Dalhaug explains that until now there has been a common acceptance that everyone depends on the systems that make up the satellites. Russia depends on its satellites as much as the United States and other countries depend on theirs.
Like Røseth, he believes the United States should have responded to any attack.
– Therefore, I think it is difficult to imagine that Russia would benefit from taking the war into space. They are technically inferior if we were to get there.
What he can imagine, however, is the so-called “jamming” from satellite signals. It already happened, among other things in the areas of the Norwegian border with Russia.
VERY IMPORTANT: SpaceX, a company owned by Elon Musk, is behind the commercial Starlink satellites, which since spring have been very important for the defense of Ukraine, as they have allowed communications to continue during the fighting despite the loss of connections mobile and internet destroyed in Russian attacks. Photo: Jae C. Hong / AP / NTB
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Vulnerable
Tom Røseth mentions a similar reaction in space or increased support for Ukraine in the form of weapons, as possible US reactions in the event of an attack on their satellites.
– The answer will also depend on what the Russians do, that is, whether it is a satellite or, say, 100. There are several thousand satellites in this Musk network, so taking out one will not necessarily cause that much damage. But it will be a symbolic and political act that will exacerbate the war.
Available in Norway
Other states may also express strong regret at such an action, Dalhaug said, in part because the remains of destroyed satellites remain as space junk, which can endanger satellites in other countries.
– China won’t think it’s a good idea. They don’t want problems with their systems they depend on, she says.
– Is it in itself an escalation of the war that Russia is threatening this?
– Had it been Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Putin himself or one of his spokespersons who said it, I would have taken it more seriously. But when it comes from a person a little further down in the direction of the foreign ministry, it’s kind of a message that this is something Russia can do, and it has the ability to do it, but it probably is only if the situation gets worse, Roseth replies.
The fact that the satellites are in low orbit makes them extremely vulnerable, he points out.
– I think it’s hard to protect yourself in the room. It is easier to attack satellites than to protect them.
– Russia has failed
Furthermore, according to Røseth, how large the consequences of any attacks for the war in Ukraine will be depends on the number of satellites that are knocked out.
– Taking down, for example, 100 satellites will make a difference. It will be able to downgrade Ukraine’s ability to communicate and operate with satellite-controlled target data, and thus influence the conduct of the war.
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Especially since the start of the war in February, it has been Russia’s desire to paralyze Ukrainian communications. Among other things, at the beginning of the war attacks were carried out on television towers and mobile antennas. However, Ukraine managed to maintain both mobile networks and satellite communications.
– So he failed. Therefore, Russia rather chooses to attack the power grid, which is easier to eliminate, and they have realized that they cannot eliminate Musk’s satellites – up to this claim here then, Røseth says.
Butcher Moss
– Stop Starlink
It was a great challenge for Russia not to be able to knock out Ukrainian communications.
– That Ukraine can use SpaceX satellites is very important and it was an opportunity for Ukraine to increase its military capacity. It is, in a sense, an infrastructure that Russia is very frustrated that it cannot influence, and therefore devises this threat. But as I said, I don’t know how much we should emphasize it. It is probably more a sign of frustration on the part of Russia and that the war is going in the wrong direction.
On Friday, the former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, also comments on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites, in connection with a comment on Musk’s recent purchase of the SoMe Twitter giant.
– Good luck, Elon Musk, for overcoming political bias and ideological dictatorship on Twitter. And put an end to the Starlink affair in Ukraine, writes Medvedev, who is now the deputy head of the Russian Security Council.
