Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through the world. Now war fatigue is increasing, says the economist.
Saturday marked the second anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. Photo: GLEB GARANICH / Reuters / NTBPublished: Published:
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Saturday marked two years since Russia invaded Ukraine.
At the front line, a brutal war is still going on. On the battlefield, the situation is still the same “extremely serious” according to NATO chief Jens Stoltenbergand Ukrainian forces at the front have reported shortages of certain types of ammunition, due to failing military support from the United States.
The invasion also shocked the world economy when the shock waves went through the markets two years ago. Now, however, the world has adapted, says the manager. And if support from the US weakens further, it could hurt Europe.
What Putin dreams of
Anders Johansen, manager at Danske Bank, believes that the last year has not taken the war any further.
– During the last year, this has developed to a greater extent into a positional war with little progress on both sides. We observe growing war fatigue both in Ukraine, but also among American and European politicians, he says.
Johansen believes that it now appears that things are slowly but surely moving towards what Putin actually dreams of.
– Namely, that at some point the West will get so fed up that they will no longer support Ukraine, he says.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, it also caused major concerns for world markets. Skyrocketing prices for gas, oil and other raw materials were expected, and it was also expected that food prices would increase significantly.
– For the markets, this is a forgotten conflict in many ways. It has not affected the markets to a large extent because the raw materials find their way into the markets. But that is the standard. War normally affects the markets in the short term, but not in the long term, says Johansen.
– The prices of natural gas and oil have come down far below the levels that were feared both one and two years ago. The gas price is high for Europe compared to Russian pipe gas, but it is much lower than what was feared when the export of Russian gas was stopped, he adds.
Anders Johansen is a manager and macro expert at Danske Bank. Photo: Sturlason AS Polyfoto
Gives advantage Ukraine
Palle Ydstebø is head teacher at the section for land power at the War College. He has followed developments closely since the war broke out last year.
He believes the economy and industry will be decisive, as Russia failed in its initial attempt at some sort of strategic assault.
– Now it’s a war of attrition, and it’s a war industry that applies, at the same time you have to have financial resources to maintain a society, he says, and thinks it benefits Ukraine. The country tripled its weapons production last year, and plans to increase production of ammunition considerably during the year.
– Russia has an economy the size of Italy. Ukraine is supported by the US, EU and other Western countries. They have a completely different potential, he says.
– Now I question what kind of financial resources Russia has to increase war production to the level they need to win the war.
Khan all for Europe
A year ago, Ukraine and the West held their breath as Putin openly flirted with President Xi and China. If Russia were to succeed in getting the world’s second largest economy behind it, it could potentially crush the Ukrainian resistance.
China, on the other hand, has appeared to be cautiously waiting. On the contrary, Ydstebø interprets it as China distancing itself from the fighting.
– I can’t see that China has influenced this that much, he says.
Photo: Hanna Kristin Hjardar / VG / NTB
What could, however, affect the outcome is a change of president in the USA.
The latest support package from the US Congress was passed only after the Republicans were able to negotiate money to strengthen the border with Mexico in the package. The EU has increased its contribution to 50 billion euros in aid packages and military material.
Despite the risk that the US will not be as generous, Ydstebø does not think it will be decisive for the war.
– The EU has the financial resources to improve the war for Ukraine alone. But it will sting a little more if you can’t trust the US, he says.
He also believes that most Americans want a Ukrainian victory, and believes that it will affect the election campaign. He refers to a survey from Quincy that shows that 71 percent of Americans believes the United States has an important role in the conflict.
Svitlana Magdenko in front of her destroyed home after a Russian rocket attack in a residential area in Kyiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, December 13, 2023. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP/NTB
Parallels to World War II
Ukraine has succeeded in restoring exports abroad, via help from Turkey and NATO countries. Ydstebø thinks it will be
– The weakness of the Russian war industry is that they are dependent on importing high-tech components from abroad. Sanction packages will presumably go against this, and plug those holes.
Despite extensive sanctions packages, Russia still succeeds in importing weapons components via former Soviet republics that have not been sanctioned.
E24 has previously told how more than 100 shipments of equipment have ended up with two Russian companies.
Ukraine has also reported that it has found Western components in Russian rockets and drones. Ydstebø believes new sanctions from Western countries will try to plug these holes, and thus stifle the Russian war industry.
As the war now enters its third year, the lieutenant colonel draws parallels to the turning points of the First and Second World Wars. Although Ukraine is far, he believes they still have a chance to ride out the storm.
– In 2024, there will be an industry race. It will be like it was in the First and Second World Wars. When the blitzkrieg ended, it was all about war industry. Ukraine has some cooperation with Western industry, especially with ammunition, artillery and air defense. Even with a significantly smaller population, Ukraine can produce enough combat power if they get the weaponry to win this war, says the lieutenant colonel.
2024-02-25 11:10:16
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