– We have come to the point, as many wars have done, that the war in Ukraine has in a way settled down. Neither party really has the opportunity to do anything spectacular, and a lasting agreement seems even more distant than before.
This is what the former defense chief Arne Bård Dalhaug, retired lieutenant general, says to Dagbladet.
Dalhaug, former chief of the Defense Staff, says that the war in Ukraine now takes place primarily in three different areas and in three different ways:
Asks Norway to turn around: – Threatening
- In the Donbas region, Russia continues its offensives, but to a limited extent and pace.
- In the Kharkiv region in the north and the Kherson region in the south, Russian forces are defending their positions against limited Ukrainian offensives.
- At irregular intervals, civilian targets throughout Ukraine are subjected to relentless Russian bombing, or “terror”, as Dalhaug calls it.
This is likely to continue to be the case in the future, according to the retired lieutenant general.
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The Battle of the Donbas
Ever since Russia withdrew its forces from the surrounding areas, northeast and northwest of Kyiv in late March, Vladimir Putin’s ruthless war machine has largely concentrated on the Donbas.
The region consists of the two counties of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Since the offensive against the Donbas, Russia has managed to subjugate the whole of Luhansk, but its territorial progress has been costly and slow.
Donetsk county is now in the Russians’ sights, but there is no reason to believe that the Russian progress will happen somewhat faster here than it did in Luhansk, Dalhaug believes.
Slaughtered: – Desperation
– Ukraine has led what I believe has been a successful strategy: They have given up little ground against large losses on the Russian side. In the meantime, they have built new and stronger lines of defense and upgraded. As of now, there is nothing to indicate that the Russians will make any rapid advance in this area, says the retired lieutenant general.
On the contrary, it can go even slower, he believes, pointing out that Ukraine has now got – and put into use – advanced and far-reaching artillery systems. It forces Russia to change its tactics.
– Now Ukraine can meet the Russian artillery positions, and then Russia will not be able to build up large ammunition depots or keep its positions for a long time. If they do, they could suffer catastrophic losses. In any case, the Russians’ opportunities to fire large quantities of artillery rockets are reduced, says Dalhaug.
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The retreat from Kharkiv
Ukraine has not only lost territory, they have also managed to regain it.
One of these areas is around Ukraine’s second largest city Kharkiv in the northeast, near the border with Russia. The Russians never managed to take the city, and since April, Ukrainian forces have managed to drive the Russians north and east.
– I think it is because Ukraine has chosen to concentrate some forces there. They have done this for two reasons, says Dalhaug.
- To push Russian artillery out of the reach of the city of Kharkiv.
- To put pressure on the Russian supply lines that run from Russia, east of Kharkiv and further south to the Donbas.
That is why Ukraine is now mobilizing
– It has worked. Many civilians have returned to Kharkiv. By striking back in the area around Kharkiv and threatening the Russian supply lines, Ukraine has also managed to influence the development of the war in the Donbas, says the retired lieutenant general.
Dalhaug believes Ukraine will be able to continue to defend Kharkiv and put pressure on Russian forces in the area.
– If we look at the development after Ukraine launched this counter-offensive around Kharkiv, the Russians have not been able to take back any of the areas they have been driven out of. It seems that Ukrainian forces have the situation under fairly good control, he says.
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Guerrilla war against occupation
One of the few areas Russian forces have managed to occupy without laying it in ruins is Kherson County north of the Crimean peninsula. They have also managed the same in parts of Zaporizhia County.
In both counties, however, there have been reports of extensive Ukrainian guerrilla and partisan warfare lately. A partisan in this context is a guerrilla soldier or freedom fighter who acts behind enemy lines.
– There are regular sabotage operations here and Russian soldiers are attacked as soon as the partisans get a chance, Dalhaug says.
The Ukrainian defense has also carried out a limited counter-offensive against the areas around Kherson city, and recaptured parts of its own territory.
“Putin’s nightmare”: – Increased sharply
Unlike many cities the Russians have taken in the Donbas, Kherson is of enormous political and strategic importance both Ukraine and Russia.
Kherson Oblast has long supplied the Crimean peninsula with water, and Kherson has now become a kind of administrative center for the Russian authorities in the land zone between Crimea and the Donbas. In addition, it is the only area in Ukraine that Russia has managed to occupy that is located west of the river Dnipro.
If Ukraine manages to push the Russians back east and especially east of the Dnipro, they will reduce Russia’s chances of ever gaining control of the Black Sea coast of Ukraine. There are good reasons why Ukraine will continue the offensive against Kherson, and therefore good reasons why Russia will have to wage a defense war here, says Dalhaug.
In that case, it will pose a new challenge for Ukraine: to drive the Russians out of inhabited areas that are relatively intact.
– That it will lead to the loss of own civilians, one must be so realistic that one must take into account, says Dalhaug.
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“This is terror”
Therefore, the retired lieutenant general reacts strongly to ISW information that Russian forces will now store ammunition in inhabited apartment blocks and historic landmarks, according to ISW.
– It only adds to the series of examples of Russia’s complete contempt for the Geneva Convention and other laws governing warfare, says Dalhaug, who has also been head of NATO Defense College.
The examples Dalhaug is referring to have become innumerable over time.
On Thursday, the Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia attacked west of Ukraine. At least 23 people were killed when a series of rockets hit an office building and nearby buildings, including a maternity clinic.
Shock statements: – Great hunt
Friday was a University of Mykolajiv attacked.
– This is completely conscious: This is terror against the civilian population. We are facing a force and a regime without moral or institutional mechanisms to limit war criminal behavior, says Dalhaug.
The Russian motivation is to influence the Ukrainian leadership to give up the fight, Dalhaug assumes,
– The problem with that mindset is that Russia, by acting so warlike, only makes the Ukrainian will to resist stronger, says the retired lieutenant general.
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