The battles over Sievjerodonetsk in Donbas in the east and Kherson in the south could be decisive for the war in Ukraine, according to the former Norwegian defense chief Arne Bård Dalhaug, retired lieutenant general.
The reasons are very different, he says:
A battle is in full swing. The second will inevitably come.
sea view
–
Massively offensive
For just over a month, Russian forces have had Sievjerodonetsk seriously in their sights. Especially in the last week, the Russians have launched a massive offensive against the city, and fierce fighting is taking place both inside and outside the city.
Ukrainian forces have so far held out.
– The battle of Sievjerodonetsk is interesting to observe, because it tells us what the Russians have to go on, says the retired Lieutenant General Dalhaug, who between 2016 and 2018 was a civilian observer for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine.
SIEVJERODONETSK: Ever since the Russian invasion on February 24, Sievjerodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast has been under Russian fire. Russian forces are now launching a massive offensive to capture the city. Photo: AFP / NTB
sea view
Since Russia withdrew its forces from northern Ukraine in late March, it has concentrated large forces in the Donbas, but progress has been limited.
– Here they are waging war with a gathering of forces, and have thinned out their own ranks elsewhere. Nevertheless, they have problems taking Sievjerodonetsk, says Dalhaug.
One of the places they have taken forces from is Kherson.
– It is a military strategy that can be questioned, says Dalhaug.
sea view
–
Preparing for defense war
And that is exactly what even pro-Russian military bloggers have done. One blogger in particular fears that Ukrainian forces in the foreseeable future can inflict “painful” defeats on Russia in the Kherson region, located just north of the Russian-connected Crimean peninsula.
Enduring in Sevierodonetsk, the Ukrainians are buying time to build up forces elsewhere, such as around Kherson. Here, Ukraine has recently conducted so-called tactical counter-offensives, minor military operations, which have been successful.
– Will inflict the greatest possible loss on Russia
The plan – and the hope – is to force Russia on the receding front, but the invading force is now preparing for a defense war.
“Russian forces are now consolidating their position, and appear to be planning to defend these areas,” says Dalhaug.
The Crimean peninsula previously received its drinking water from a spring near Kherson, and Russia has sought to build an administrative center in the city to integrate. It is the only area west of the river Dnipro Russia has managed to occupy.
KHERSON: Much of the area around the city of Kherson has been under Russian control since the beginning of the war. It is the only area west of the river Dnipro Russia has occupied. FotoThis photo taken on May 20, 2022 shows a womand and child walking in a park as Russian servicemen patrol the street in Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast, amid the ongoing Russian military action in Ukraine. (Photo by Olga MALTSEVA / AFP)
sea view
Little progress in Donetsk
Should Russia succeed in taking Sevierodonetsk and the twin city of Lysychansk, Vladimir Putin will have managed to occupy virtually all of Luhansk, one of two counties that make up the Donbas region.
That leaves almost the entire Donetsk region, the other county in the Donbas.
– Offices destroyed
– Russia has not been able to take much from Donetsk. The line of contact has been preserved, and in practice Ukraine is in the same areas as it was before the war, says the retired lieutenant general.
The reason is simply explained geography, says Dalhaug.
In Luhansk, Russia has managed to enter Ukrainian territory without going through the line of contact. They have come through already occupied territories and from Russia. In Donetsk, they have not had that opportunity, he says.
