In crucial areas along the front line of the Donbas region, Russia is inferior to Ukraine because Vladimir Putin’s war machine lacks one important thing:
Drones, and the strategic benefits they can provide.
It writes even the ultra-nationalist Igor Girkin, a suspected Russian war criminal, ihuga Putin supporter and military blogger, on Telegram.
– Think the table is too small
The Ukrainian supremacy in this area should now be so obvious that Russia’s president is forced to look to the fundamentalist clerical regime in Iran to upgrade, warns the United States.
– It is a clear admission of desperation, says the former defense chief Arne Bård Dalhaug, retired lieutenant general, to Dagbladet.
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«Negotiation card»
Iran must not only be willing to sell Russia hundreds of drones in record time. They should also be willing to train Russian forces in their use as early as this summer, US authorities claim.
Iran neither rejects nor confirms the US claims, but states that cooperation with Russia has not changed “significantly” after the war in Ukraine.
Shock statements: – Great hunt
Earlier, Iranian authorities said they were against the war in Ukraine, but did not condemn Russia’s invasion.
– Iran knows that they will receive a lot of criticism for this from both the United States and the West in general, but at the same time there is an incredible amount in international politics that can be used as a bargaining chip, says NTNU professor Jo Jakobsen, expert in international politics, to Dagbladet.
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Informal alliance
As long as the sale – apparently – has not taken place yet, it is difficult to rule out that there may be tactics on the part of Iran, Jakobsen believes.
– If Iran does not put pressure on the American allies, in fact the American incentives to approach Iran may be less, says the NTNU professor.
The sale can also be real, and the calculation from the clergy’s board can then be that they will not achieve any benefits from does not to sell drones to Russia.
– Can not win
– Iran has over many years shown that they have many cards up their sleeve, just to show the other party that there are large costs associated with being too hard in the negotiations with them, Jakobsen says.
He says that Iran and Russia are not “natural allies”, but that together they “form an informal anti-American axis”.
– Together with China and Venezuela, among others, Iran and Russia have been designated by the United States as unrest in international politics. They have found together in their opposition to the prevailing world order, which is led by the United States, says the NTNU professor.
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– The Russians have struggled
According to the retired lieutenant general Dalhaug, drones are mainly used for two different things on the battlefield.
- To obtain intelligence on, for example, the positions of the enemies, and to direct one’s own fire against these positions.
- To attack enemy positions from the air.
Some drones are capable of doing both, others specialize in intelligence or combat.
At the top of fear: “Biggest threat”
In order to use the drones effectively, various arms must work well together, and this has been one of the biggest weaknesses of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Dalhaug believes.
– The Russians have handled this relatively complex battle picture poorly, because it requires, among other things, advanced communication lines that are encrypted. We know this from before that the Russians have struggled to create and maintain, says Dalhaug.
Also in the past, the Russians have been stung for underestimating drones as an intelligence and combat tool.
– They went on a rampage in Libya, where Turkey and Russia supported each other, and the Russian-supported forces had to withdraw from an area because Turkey used drones. Russia also did not supply Armenia with drones during the war in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, where Armenia suffered heavy losses because they were exposed to attacks with Turkish drones, says Dalhaug.
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Obstructed by sanctions
Next week, Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Tehran to meet with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
On Wednesday, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin and Raisi does not will discuss Russia’s alleged drone purchases.
Warns of disaster
That Russia wants a low profile about the purchase is understandable, says former defense chief Dalhaug.
– Russia now has no opportunity to produce modern weapons systems itself. All of them have Western components in them, but these are now subject to sanctions. That the Russians now suddenly have to turn to Tehran to buy so-called modern weapons is a clear admission of desperation, he says.
It is unclear exactly which drones Iran will be willing to sell to Russia, and it is also unclear exactly how high-tech they are.
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“Drone experts”
NTNU professor Jakobsen, however, describes Iran as “drone experts”, and describes the drones as an “important, integral part of Iran’s military arsenal”.
– We know a lot about the fighting ability, because they have been used a lot in Yemen, but also in attacks against Saudi Arabia. This is important, because Saudi Arabia has for many years been provided with American weapons and defense systems. For Saudi Arabia, Iranian drones are a headache, he says.
Asks Norway to turn around: – Threatening
If Russia gets hundreds of new drones from Iran, Russia will in theory have better capabilities in two areas, according to retired Lieutenant General Dalhaug.
– In theory, they will have better intelligence capacity, which has so far been poor, and a better opportunity to lead a fire. Then there is the question of how many drones they can buy, what kind of drones they are talking about, what kind of access they get to spare parts and support components and how exposed they are to modern air defense systems and GPS jamming, he says.
Whether it will actually have an effect remains to be seen.
– So far, I have a sober expectation of the effect of the Iranian drones, partly because Russia has handled this part of warfare until now, says Dalhaug.
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