As long as Vladimir Putin is in the Kremlin, Ukraine and Russia will come never to find a diplomatic solution to the war that is acceptable to both countries.
That is the opinion of the American professor Alexander Motyl, one of the USA’s leading Russia and Ukraine experts.
In an interview with Dagbladet, Motyl says that the only way to force Putin to stop the war on Ukrainian soil is by a scorching defeat. For either Russia or Ukraine.
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– Victory means destruction
A victory for Putin’s Russia looks very different from a Ukrainian victory. The fundamental contradiction is the reason why there is no room for compromise, says the professor, who teaches and researches at Rutger University.
A Ukrainian victory is synonymous with driving Russian forces either out of Ukraine, or back to the areas of the Donbas that were occupied before February 24, Motyl said.
“Putin’s nightmare”: – Increased sharply
– A Russian victory means the destruction of the whole of Ukraine and its people. The Russians are already doing so in eastern Ukraine, and they will have to continue to crush cities and the civilian population. Anything other than that is, objectively speaking, a defeat for Russia, because it will involve a long guerrilla war that will ultimately sink Russia, he tells Dagbladet.
However, Motyl does not disregard Putin’s censorship and propaganda apparatus able to spin a defeat into a victory.
– The problem with that is that even if most Russians would have bought that story, most of the elite would have known that Putin had created a disaster, the professor says.
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“Russian advantage”
The US Russia and Ukraine expert is convinced that Ukraine can manage to drive Russian forces out of even the Donbas, where Russian hybrid forces have been at war with Ukrainian government forces for eight years – since 2014.
– Ukraine has better soldiers. The only Russian advantage is the number of weapons, says Motyl.
And that benefit will be equalized over time, the professor believes.
“Invisible” weapons can be crucial
– When Ukraine will get the weapons they need, they will be able to drive the Russians backwards, he says.
Motyl also believes it is important to remember that the Russians’ arsenal is shrinking as Ukraine’s arsenal continues to grow.
– The Russians run out of missiles and modern tanks. They also have great difficulty replenishing their strengths. Morale is also low, and most Russians are opposed to mass mobilization, says the professor.
Therefore, he draws the following conclusion:
– Putin is in trouble.
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– No solution with Putin
A Russian defeat can also take various forms, Motyl believes. For Russia, it will be a defeat if the Ukrainians simply drive them out of Ukraine.
– But the loss will be enormous if Putin is forced to step down and a power struggle with mass demonstrations takes place and there is a change of regime.
How likely it is is difficult to estimate, but Motyl has previously explained why he thinks it is not impossible in a chronicle in it online defense and security magazine 19fortyfive.
– Collects Putin’s feces
– Do you manage to envision a possible solution to the conflict that both Russia and Ukraine find acceptable?
– No, I see no solution with Putin. If he disappears, both sides could have been able to find a Russian withdrawal to the borders before February 24 and possibly start negotiations on the Donbas and the Crimean peninsula, Motyl answers.
– One of the pages must win, he adds.
