The agency notes that from 60,000 to 100,000 Russian troops are concentrated near the Ukrainian border. At the same time, their number can be quickly increased to 175 thousand. US officials have said that Russia could attack Ukraine as early as January, when the ground becomes hard due to frost and military equipment can move freely.
“The current deployment (of the Russian military – ed.) is universal. It leaves Russia with several options (of attack – ed.) and therefore leaves the defender guessing,” said Keir Giles, a researcher at Chatham House.
The publication published several possible scenarios for a Russian attack on Ukraine.
Escalation in Donbas
An agency source familiar with the opinion of the Russian Ministry of Defense said that this is the most likely scenario for a possible attack on Ukraine. According to him, pro-Russian militants in the Donbass can provoke the Ukrainian military and then ask Moscow to send troops to help.
According to Neil Melvin, director of international security studies at the RUSI think tank in London, in this case, Russia may try to seize the Ukrainian coastal areas on the Sea of Azov. Thus, the Russian military will create a land bridge from Rostov-on-Don through the Donbass to the Crimea.
Strike from the Crimea
Another option for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts call a strike from the occupied Crimea. According to the director of the Polish consulting company Rochan, Konrad Muzyka, with this attack, the Russian military could seize territory as far as the Dnieper, which will serve as a natural obstacle against any Ukrainian counteroffensive.
In addition, an attack from the Crimea and the capture of the left bank of the Dnieper would make it possible to gain control over the canal that supplied the peninsula with fresh water before the occupation.
Attack from multiple directions
A Russian attack on Ukraine from multiple directions could involve pushing into the northeastern part of the country without capturing cities where the military could get bogged down in street fighting.
According to Giles, Russian troops could also enter Ukraine from Belarus. In this case, Russian troops can quickly advance towards Kiev.
Melvin, in turn, believes that the capture of southern Ukraine could cut off Kiev from the coast and the presence of NATO in the Black Sea. This scenario will play into the hands of Russian nationalists who consider this region to be the historical lands of “Novorossiya”.
According to the expert, this option is the most expensive both in economic terms and in terms of human losses. Melvin considers this scenario the least likely.
Missile strikes and cyber attacks
Some of the above scenarios may include missile strikes and cyber attacks targeting critical infrastructure.
“Different scenarios of exactly how Russia might try to convince the West to fulfill its demands (talking about security guarantees – ed.) by punishing Kiev do not even necessarily include a ground invasion,” Giles said.
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