Russian President Vladimir Putin is the world leader Norwegians clearly fear most. It emerges from an opinion poll Ipsos has conducted on behalf of Dagbladet.
Put up against each other, Norwegians fear Putin far more than they together fear Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Joe Biden.
As many as 80 percent of those polled said Putin poses the greatest threat to world peace, compared with 38 percent in 2021.
The reason is as natural as it is brutal, according to experts: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Pointing to the United States
Then the experts separate teams.
Russia expert Iver Neumann, director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI), believes that Vladimir Putin’s Russia currently poses the greatest threat to world peace.
– I put Putin first because we know he is willing to go to war. He has done it several times before, in Georgia, in Chechnya and in Ukraine three times. We know that this is part of his normal repertoire in international politics, says Neumann to Dagbladet.
NTNU professor Jo Jakobsen, an expert on international politics, has a very different view of the matter.
– A few years ago, I remember that SV caused a little scandal when it was in their party program that the United States was the biggest threat to world peace. They’re really right. What the United States does and does not do is far more important to that question than most other countries. That is why Joe Biden and the United States are the biggest threat to world peace, but the threat is not person-dependent on him, says Jakobsen.
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– The United States holds the key
Jakobsen is neither a left-wing radical nor particularly negative towards the United States, but is in no doubt when Dagbladet asks. He even reckons that he “may get thin for this”, but says it anyway.
– I have nothing against the United States, but the point is that the United States has control over a significant part of the power in the world. Then it’s so straight forward that they have the biggest role to play. This has nothing to do with whether the United States is good or evil, but simply that they are supremely powerful, says the NTNU professor, who has previously been awarded prizes for his research.
MEETING: The first and so far last time Joe Biden and Putin had a physical summit as presidents was in January this year. Photo: AFP / NTB
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That the United States is most powerful also means that they have the greatest potential to pose a threat, Jakobsen believes.
He uses the US conflict with China over the South China Sea and Taiwan as examples when he explains how the US and Joe Biden can pose a greater threat than, for example, Putin and Xi.
– If the United States goes too far and takes an action that is perceived as aggressive by China, or vice versa, the parties may end up in a negative spiral. This balancing act is very demanding, but as a rule it is the USA that holds this key, says the NTNU professor.
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These are the examples
He denies that he is concerned that the United States knowingly wants or will do anything that destroys world peace.
– The main point is that what the United States does and does not do, is of great importance to a lot in the world. When the United States sends thousands of troops to Europe and Asia, it is a military act, but it is meant to be a deterrent. The problem that lurks is always this spiral dynamic, says Jakobsen.
– The beginning at the end
Again he comes up with a new example.
– Had the United States, under Trump, actually withdrawn completely from Europe and Asia, it would have opened up a large space for regional actors such as Russia and China. In practice, such an action would have threatened world peace more than other things, but that does not necessarily mean that the United States would have been morally responsible for the threat to world peace, says the professor.
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Xi number two
However, he understands well why most Norwegians believe Putin poses the greatest threat, and calls it natural, given the situation in Ukraine.
– At the same time, very much of the international power relations, stability and instability in the years to come will depend on the USA and China. The long-term strategic game will take place between the United States and China, and as long as Xi Jinping rules, he will also belong on this list, says the professor.
NUMBER TWO: Chinese President Xi Jinping leads a country that is “increasingly aggressive”, according to an expert. Photo: AP / NTB
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And again, the experts agree, because even FNI director Neumann believes Xi Jinping is a good number two on the threat list.
– He is increasingly aggressive both towards Taiwan, first and foremost, and other countries around the South China Sea and the Sea of Japan. There are increasingly stronger and more aggressive messages coming from China, and the consequences of this may be greater.
